The Georgia Bulldogs are set to face the Michigan Wolverines in the College Football Playoff semifinals at the Orange Bowl. Check out our college football odds series, which includes our Georgia Michigan prediction, odds, and pick.
The Georgia Bulldogs beat everyone on their schedule except Alabama. The Bulldogs beat Clemson in Week 1 of the season. That win didn’t turn out to be as impressive as most people expected at the start of the season, but Clemson still did win 10 games this year. Georgia, as college football odds analysts know well, did not allow more than 17 points to any opponent before getting blasted by Bama in the SEC Championship Game. The Bulldogs were physically superior to every non-Alabama opponent. That’s what coach Kirby Smart relies on and hopes for each year. He wants to beat teams, and he wants to beat them up. He recruits supremely strong and physical athletes and counts on raw muscular prowess to win games. Georgia usually does own the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Only Alabama seems to be able to exploit the Dawgs’ limitations. Think about that when considering a Georgia Michigan prediction.
Michigan became a lot more physical this year, and that was the difference in enabling Jim Harbaugh to finally achieve all the things Wolverine fans had expected him to do several years ago, when he came to Ann Arbor as a head coach. Harbaugh beat Ohio State as a player in the mid-1980s. This year, he finally beat Ohio State as a coach, enabling the Wolverines to beat the Buckeyes for the first time in 10 years. Michigan got the OSU monkey off its back and finally checked several other very big boxes as well: first Big Ten East Division championship, first Big Ten Championship Game appearance, first Big Ten title game victory, first College Football Playoff appearance. Harbaugh finally delivered, and Michigan’s patience with him was handsomely rewarded. Remember that when making your Georgia Michigan pick.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds:
College football odds: Georgia-Michigan Odds
Georgia: -7.5 (-105)
Michigan: +7.5 (-115)
Over: 45 (-110)
Under: 45 (-110)
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Why Georgia Could Cover the Spread
The Bulldogs are better than every non-Alabama team. That includes Michigan. The Wolverines are a really, really good team, but they’re not Bama. They don’t have the speed at wide receiver the Crimson Tide does. They don’t have the quarterback the Tide have. They don’t have the extra dimensions Alabama could bring to the table against Georgia. This doesn’t make Michigan a bad team; it just makes Michigan not as good as Georgia. That’s all it is.
Why Michigan Could Cover the Spread
The Georgia Bulldogs’ best win was against Clemson, and as you might have seen in the Camping World Bowl against Iowa State, Clemson’s offense very rarely played well this season, briefly emerging against Wake Forest and South Carolina but doing very little else over the course of 13 games. Clemson scored just 13 points on offense against Iowa State, getting the other seven points on a pick-six. Georgia’s only touchdown in that 10-3 win over Clemson was a pick-six. This Georgia offense has not been especially good. The UGA defense has been able to put opponents to bed that the offense didn’t have to face crunch-time situations (let alone excel in them) until the Bama game, and we all saw what happened there. When thinking about a Georgia Michigan pick, remember that point.
Final Georgia-Michigan Prediction & Pick
Georgia will win outright because Michigan is not fast enough, and because Michigan plays the physical style Kirby Smart likes. However, Stetson Bennett is clearly not a top-tier quarterback. He will not shred Michigan’s defense, which will therefore keep the game close. With the spread being just over seven points, as opposed to 6.5, Georgia by seven — a Michigan cover — feels like a very good possibility. Georgia 20, Michigan 13.
Final Georgia-Michigan Pick: Michigan +7.5