The Illinois Fighting Illini (7-3) visit the #3 Michigan Wolverines (10-0) in a major Big Ten matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 pm ET on Saturday. Below we continue our College Football odds series with an Illinois-Michigan prediction and pick.
Illinois has amassed a 7-3 record having dropped games to Purdue, Michigan State, and Indiana. The Fighting Illini most recently lost to Purdue last week 31-24. Illinois is 4-3 in Big Ten play and currently sits in first place in the Big Ten West. . The Fighting Illini are 6-4 against the spread while 67% of their games have gone under.
Michigan is undefeated at 10-0 and is the third-ranked team in the country. The Wolverines most recently defeated Nebraska 34-3 last week. Michigan is 7-0 in Big Ten play and is tied for first place in the Big Ten East. The Wolverines are 6-3-1 against the spread while 78% of their games have gone under.
Here are the Illinois-Michigan college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Illinois-Michigan Odds
Illinois Fighting Illini:+17.5 (-110)
Michigan Wolverines: -17.5 (-110)
Over: 41.5 (-105)
Under: 41.5 (-115)
Why Illinois Could Cover The Spread
Illinois is in the midst of its best season in recent memory. The Fighting Illini have already collected their most victories since 2011. Illinois features an average offense that ranks eighth in the Big Ten in scoring (24.7 PPG). They pride themselves on their stellar defense which ranks second in the Big Ten in points allowed (12.5 PPG).
The Fighting Illini are a defensive-minded team that is stout against the run and against the pass. Illinois is second in the Big Ten in rushing yards allowed (85.9 YDS/G). They are also second in passing yards allowed (161 YDS/G). The defense is led by standout defensive back Devon Witherspoon. The junior cornerback has 33 tackles and one interception this season for the Fighting Illini. He is a lockdown cornerback who is projected to be a second-round pick in next year's NFL draft.
Offensively, Illinois is a run-first team. The Fighting Illini are fourth in the Big Ten in rushing, averaging 183.5 YDS/G. They rely primarily on their workhorse back Chase Brown. Brown is questionable for Saturday's matchup but is reportedly trending in the right direction. He is the heart and soul of their offense. For the season, Brown leads the Big Ten in rushing with 1,442 yards. He has also tacked on seven touchdowns.
Whether Brown is available or not, Illinois will need a big game from quarterback Tommy Devito. Devito in a game manager who does a great job finding open receivers and limiting mistakes. For the season, Devito has amassed 2,083 passing yards and holds a 15 to three touchdown to interception ratio. His 72.2 QBR is 32nd in the entire country. He's coming off one of his worst games of the season, however, having thrown for just 201 yards on a 56% completion percentage in their loss to Purdue.
Why Michigan Could Cover The Spread
Michigan is one of the best team's in the country with stars up and down their roster. The Wolverines are first in the Big Ten in defense as they allow just 11.2 PPG. They have the conference's second-best offense as well, averaging 41.4 PPG.
The Wolverines are a run-first team that ranks first in the conference in rushing (251.4 YDS/G). They rely primarily on Heisman hopeful Blake Corum. The junior running back is undersized at 5'8″ but has great instincts and is a pain to take down. For the season, Corum has rushed for 1,349 yards and a conference-best 17 touchdowns. He is coming off a stellar performance against Nebraska where he rushed 28 times for 162 yards and a touchdown.
If Michigan is going to cover, it is going to be because of their defense. The Wolverines lead the country in total defense as they allow just 232 YDS/G. They are especially stout against the run. They lead the nation in rushing defense by giving up just 72.7 rushing yards per game. Their proficiency against the run is something to keep in mind when making an Illinois-Michigan prediction given the Illini's affinity for the run.
A key factor in Michigan's ability to cover is the play of sophomore quarterback JJ McCarthy. McCarthy is a former top recruit who does a great job managing the Wolverines' offense. He's passed for 1,744 yards on the season. His best attribute is his efficiency. McCarthy has thrown 14 touchdowns with only two interceptions. He's also completed 69% of his passes. McCarthy is coming off a quiet game against Nebraska in which he threw for just 129 yards and two touchdowns.
Final Illinois-Michigan Prediction & Pick
Illinois has been frisky and is having an incredible season. That being said, the Wolverines are on a different level than the Fighting Illini and shouldn't have any issues covering at home. Hammer Michigan.
Final Illinois-Michigan Prediction & Pick: Michigan Wolverines -17.5 (-110)
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