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The Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Ohio State Buckeyes. Check out our college football odds series for our Iowa Ohio State prediction and pick.
The Iowa Hawkeyes are the classic “half a loaf” team. They are tremendously strong on one side of the ball, and profoundly impotent and incompetent on the other side of the ball. There are plenty of other teams like Iowa in that larger sense, but Iowa embodies the split-personality profile better than any other team in the country. Give this Iowa defense a moderately good offense, and the Hawkeyes would win the Big Ten West. If you give this Iowa defense a Cadillac offense such as Tennessee's or USC's? Wow. The Hawkeyes would be national championship contenders. It's so unfortunate for Hawkeye fans that a brilliant defense's talents continue to be wasted by a do-nothing offense. Many will blame offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz for these problems, but the quarterback spot is the true problem. Spencer Petra simply isn't very good. Brian Ferentz obviously is responsible in part for this problem, but his father, head coach Kirk Ferentz, is the man who ultimately has to take the blame for not figuring out this one position. The Hawkeyes did not use the transfer portal very much this offseason, and whether Ferentz likes it or not (and he doesn't), using the portal simply has to become a regular part of a coach's job description in 2022 college football. This is now how the industry operates. Coaches who don't use the portal will get left behind, and the sooner they accept that, the better.
The Ohio State Buckeyes have an elite offense and a good defense. They have the balance Iowa sorely lacks. The Ohio State defense isn't amazing, but when a team has C.J. Stroud throwing the ball to a fleet of skilled wide receivers behind a strong offensive line, it doesn't need the 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers' defense on the field. It just needs a responsible, functional defense which can get several stops per game and minimize damage. That's what the Buckeyes have. As long as opponents don't hang video game-level numbers on the Bucks, they will be just fine this season. Given that the Big Ten has a lot of teams with limited, medicore-or-worse offenses — Iowa's being the worst — Ohio State has a large margin for error in 2022. Michigan appears to be the only team with a legitimate shot at beating Ohio State in Big Ten Conference play this year.
Here are the Iowa-Ohio State NCAAF Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Iowa-Ohio State Odds
Iowa Hawkeyes: +29.5 (-108)
Ohio State Buckeyes: -29.5 (-112)
Over: 49.5 (-106)
Under: 49.5 (-114)
Why Iowa Could Cover the Spread
The Hawkeyes have the best defense Ohio State has faced this season. Notre Dame handled Ohio State well in Week 1, but the Fighting Irish defense has not been overwhelmingly great this year. It hasn't been terrible, but it certainly hasn't been imposing. Iowa has shown more on defense than Notre Dame has to this point in the season. The Hawkeyes, if they play their best defensive game, can hold Ohio State under 30 points. Given that the spread is 29.5, Iowa is guaranteed to cover the spread if Ohio State scores fewer than 30 points.
Why Ohio State Could Cover the Spread
The Iowa defense is very strong, but the Hawkeyes have not seen the speed they will see on Saturday. Iowa did well to keep Michigan under 30 points, but Michigan does not have the skill and talent on the perimeter that Ohio State's receivers have. Ohio State should be able to score 38 points in this game, which — given Iowa's utter lack of offense — should be enough to cover.
Final Iowa-Ohio State Prediction & Pick
The Iowa offense won't do anything. That much seems clear. It really comes down to whether Ohio State's offense can completely blow the doors off Iowa's defense. As long as Iowa can hold the fort for a quarter and a half, Ohio State will probably score no more than 42 points. Since Iowa is unlikely to score more than seven, the under seems to be the best play on this game.
Final Iowa-Ohio State Prediction & Pick: Under 49.5
