The Miami Hurricanes are looking to bounce back from a bad season as they head into 2023. It's time to share our college football odds series and make a Miami over-under win total prediction and pick for the 2023 season.
The Hurricanes are used to being a good team. However, they experienced the other side in 2022. Miami went 5-7, including 3-5 in the ACC. Now, they attempt to rebound and find their winning ways again. The Hurricanes started 2022 with a 2-0 record. However, a 17-9 loss to Texas A&M was the beginning of the end. The Canes lost 45-31 to Middle Tennessee and followed that with a 27-24 defeat at the hands of North Carolina. Conversely, they pulled out a 20-14 win over West Virginia on the road. But they suffered a 45-21 thrashing at the hands of Duke before edging out West Virginia 14-12 in four overtimes.
Miami then suffered an embarrassing 45-3 defeat at home to Florida State in one of the most one-sided games the two rivals have ever played. Then, they won 35-14 on the road against Georgia State before losing 40-10 to Clemson. Miami finished the season with a 42-16 defeat to Pittsburgh at home. Overall, the Hurricanes went 2-5 at Hard Rock Stadium, showcasing their struggles at home, while going 3-2 on the road. Miami had gone 7-5 in 2021 and 8-3 in 2020, so their struggles were a shock.
Miami only lost two notable players to the NFL. Significantly, defensive tackle Jonathan Ford is gone as the Green Bay Packers drafted him in the seventh round of the 2023 NFL Draft. They also lost tight end Will Mallory, who the Indianapolis Colts drafted in the fifth round.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 7.5 wins: +138
Under 7.5 wins: -170
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Why Miami Can Win 7.5 Games
The offense struggled often last season. Therefore, it was time for a change. New offensive coordinator Josh Gattis could be the guy that helps them get to the next level. Amazingly, he helped Houston quarterback Clayton Tune toss 40 touchdowns. The goal is to now get Tyler Van Dyke going again after he struggled last season. Can Gattis be the man to turn things around?
Gattis will have some new offensive linemen to work with. Thus, we will see new guard Javion Cohen and new center Matt Lee. Cohen transferred from Alabama, while Lee came over from UCF.
There is some hope that Mario Cristobal can excel in his second year at the helm. Remember, this was not his first head-coaching job. Cristobal went 35-13 in his time as the head coach of the Oregon Ducks from 2017 to 2021. Now, he looks to improve after struggling to adjust in his first season on the job in Miami. Cristobal also looks to improve a 67-67 career coaching record. Likewise, Cristobal will have a new defensive coordinator in Lance Guidry, who will have his hands full with a defense that struggled a lot.
Miami will win eight games if they can rediscover their offensive mojo and score plenty of points. Additionally, their defense must not struggle consistently.
Why Miami Can Not Win 7.5 Games
Miami had one of the worst offenses in football. Therefore, it is hard to go anywhere but up. The Hurricanes ranked 86th in total offense at 367.4 yards per game. Furthermore, they were 97th in points per game at 23.6. Van Dyke was the 2021 ACC Rookie of the Year. However, he played badly last season and did not come close to resembling the great quarterback from the previous season. Van Dyke threw for 1,835 yards, 10 touchdowns, and five interceptions through nine games. Ultimately, it was a significant drop from the 2021 season, where he threw for 2,931 yards, 25 touchdowns, and six interceptions over 10 contests. The offensive line was not great, and will need time to mesh for Van Dyke to have a chance.
The Hurricanes ranked 65th in total defense at 375.2 yards allowed per game. Also, they ranked 65th in points allowed per game. Guidry will need to find the right mix of players to implement his defense. Then, he will need creative schemes.
Miami will not win eight games because there are too many moving pieces. Also, they have many of the same issues from last season and will need time to address them.
Final Miami Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
There are still heavy expectations in Miami. However, it is challenging to jump from five wins to eight without significant improvements. Have the Hurricanes made those improvements? It remains a mystery. For now, I do not see them winning eight. They may come close.
Final Miami Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 7.5 wins: -170
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