The #4 TCU Horned Frogs visit the #18 Texas Longhorns in a primetime Big 12 matchup. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 pm ET. Below we continue our College Football odds series with a TCU-Texas prediction and pick.
TCU is undefeated at 9-0 and seemingly controls its own destiny in making the College Football Playoff. The Horned Frogs are 6-0 in the Big 12 and sit in sole possession of first place. TCU most recently took down Texas Tech 34-24. The Horned Frogs have been kind to betters, covering 88% of their games. Their games have been solid overs as it has hit in 67% of their games.
Texas is 6-3 but has lost their three games by a combined 11 points. The Longhorns are 4-2 in Big 12 play and are tied for second in the conference. Texas most recently upset then-13th-ranked Kansas State 34-27. The Longhorns have been a strong play for bettors, covering 67% of their games. Texas' games have slightly favored the under, with it hitting 56% of their matchups.
Here are the TCU-Texas college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: TCU-Texas Odds
TCU Horned Frogs: +7 (-105)
Texas Longhorns: -7 (-115)
Over: 64.5 (-115)
Under: 64.5 (-105)
Why TCU Could Cover The Spread
TCU has been been an absolute machine both in the win column and in the betting market. TCU has defeated four ranked teams but has not won by more than 10 points since the first weekend of October. The Horned Frogs have the third-highest-scoring offense in the country but their defense has been suspect. TCU has the 74th-ranked scoring defense and the 95th-ranked pass defense. They've been slightly better against the run, ranking 70th.
Offensively, the Horned Frogs have a balanced attack that ranks 4th in total offense. They hold the 21st-ranked passing offense behind the arm of senior Max Duggan. Duggan has had a spectacular season for TCU. He ranks 23rd in the country in passing yards (2407) and is ninth in passing touchdowns (24). He's also been highly efficient, completing 66% of his passes and throwing just two interceptions. His 80.1 QBR also ranks 14th in FBS.
Duggan's primary target has been junior receiver, Quentin Johnston. Johnston has caught 42 receptions for 650 yards and four touchdowns this season. He is questionable, however, after leaving last week's game with an injury. His absence was would be missed, however, they have a slew of capable receivers to take his place. Senior Taye Barber stepped up last week, leading the team with three catches for 62 yards. He's one of two other TCU receivers with over 20 catches on the year, having caught 23 balls for 450 yards.
Even if Johnston is active, the Horned Frogs will likely rely early and often on their strong run game. Junior running back Kendre Miller ranks 13th in the country in rushing. He's amassed 1009 yards and 12 touchdowns on 6.6 yards per carry. He's been in the midst of a hot streak as well, having run for over 88 yards in each of the last seven games.
Why Texas Could Cover The Spread
Texas is just 6-3 but has suffered a slew of close losses including by one to Alabama and by three to Texas Tech. They've been much better than their record shows and the underlying metrics support that. Texas has a strong offense, ranking 30th in total offense. They have been susceptible on defense though, ranking 74th in total defense.
Texas offense is led by freshman phenom Quinn Ewers. Ewers was the top quarterback recruit in last year's class and has shown flashes of brilliance this season. He's amassed 1336 yards and 13 touchdowns this year, although he has also thrown five interceptions. His 78.0 QBR ranks 18th in the country, however, and is coming off a mediocre game against Kansas State that saw him not throw an interception, but complete just 58% of his passes.
While Ewers gets most of the spotlight, Texas' offense runs first and foremost through the legs of running back Bijan Robinson. The junior is sixth in the country in rushing yards with 1129 and 11th in rushing touchdowns with 12. He's run for 5.9 yards per carry and is also coming off his best game of the season. The workhorse ran 30 times against Kansas State for 209 yards and a score. He'll likely see a similar workload against a TCU team that just gave up 195 yards to Texas Tech.
Final TCU-Texas Prediction & Pick
Despite TCU being fourth in the country, they enter this matchup as seven-point underdogs. That seems about right, however, considering their lack of dominant performances and health uncertainty from major skill position players. That being said, Texas has been up-and-down this season and this screams a one-score game. Lay the points with the ‘Frogs.
Final TCU-Texas Prediction & Pick: TCU +7 (-115)
Follow Us
Subscribe