The Texas Longhorns (3-2) travel to take on the Oklahoma Sooners (3-2) in this year's Red River Rivalry. Kickoff is scheduled for 12 pm ET. Below we continue our College Football odds series with a Texas-Oklahoma prediction and pick.
Texas comes into this rivalry game after a decisive 38-20 victory over West Virginia. With the win, the Longhorns moved to 1-1 in Big 12 conference games. They've suffered a pair of tight losses, losing by a combined 4 points against Texas Tech and Alabama.
Oklahoma limps into their home showdown with Texas after two consecutive losses. The Sooners started 3-0 but have since lost two straight. Oklahoma is 0-2 in the Big 12 and will be seeking their first conference win.
Here are the Texas-Oklahoma college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Texas-Oklahoma Odds
Texas Longhorns: -8.5 (-110)
Oklahoma Sooners: +8.5 (-110)
Over: 65.5 (-110)
Under: 65.5 (-110)
Why Texas Could Cover The Spread
Texas is a team that has flirted with the Top 25 all season. The Longhorns are 3-2 but could easily be undefeated. The Longhorns lost by a single point to top-ranked Alabama in week two and then lost a heartbreaker to Texas Tech by three in week four. However, the Longhorns looked good last week in their 18-point victory over West Virginia in which their defense allowed just 61 rushing yards and their offense amassed 446 total yards.
Texas has been without starting quarterback Quin Ewers since he was knocked out of the Alabama game in week two. That will change this week as Ewers returns from injury. In the game and a half, Ewers had played this season before being sidelined he'd completed 25 of 36 passes for 359 yards and 2 touchdowns. His return is a welcome sight for Texas backers. The true freshman was the #1 ranked player in last season's recruiting class and is already generating NFL draft buzz. Despite his youth, Ewers has flashed star potential and was putting together the makings of a breakout performance against Alabama before he had to exit.
Taking some of the pressure off Ewers' shoulders will be running back Bijan Robinson. The junior bruiser ranks second in the Big 12 with 515 rushing yards. His 8 rushing touchdowns also rank second. Robinson has seen a heavy workload since Ewers went down having rushed at least 20 times in three of the four games Ewers has missed. He's run for over 100 yards in three straight games – including last week's 21-carry, 101-yard performance in their victory over West Virginia. Robinson's ability to slow the game down for Ewers is something to keep in mind when making a Texas-Oklahoma prediction.
Why Oklahoma Could Cover The Spread
Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
Just two weeks ago Oklahoma was the #6 team in the AP Poll. Then, they lost to Kansas State at home. Not great. Last week, the Sooners were blown out by TCU by a score of 55-24. However, if we take a step back perhaps there is some hope for the Sooners – at least on Saturday. Keep in mind, the only other time Oklahoma started 0-2 in the Big 12 was the 2020 season when they ended up winning the conference.
Oklahoma's success largely hangs on their offense as they have not been able to stop anyone defensively. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is unlikely to play in this game after suffering a head injury last week so it will fall to Pitt transfer Davis Beville to run the Sooner offense. Upon being called on last week Beville completed 7 of 16 passes for just 50 yards in relief. Beville doesn't have much experience having completed just 31 passes in his career.
With the inexperienced Beville running the offense, look for the Sooners to rely on their potent running game to carry the load. Oklahoma has a plethora of good backs to split carries between but the star of the show is senior Eric Gray. Gray has amassed 460 yards on just 66 attempts this season – good for 7 yards per attempt. He's run for over a hundred yards in three of Oklahoma's five games but is coming off his worst game of the season. In last week's loss to TCU Gray carried just 13 times for 60 yards and a touchdown.
Gray's quiet week was largely due to a negative game script in the blowout. However, it was also thanks to the emergence of freshman back Jovantae Barnes. Barnes had 18 carries for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns in what could be considered a breakout game for the 10th-rated running back in last year's recruiting class. Barnes has seen his carries creep up in every game this season. He will look to exploit a vulnerable Texas run defense allowing 120 yards per game.
Final Texas-Oklahoma Prediction & Pick
These two teams could not be heading in more opposite directions. Texas gets their starting quarterback back from injury, while Oklahoma projects to be missing theirs. With how competitive Texas has been this year and how bad Oklahoma's defense has played, I'll lay the points with the visiting favorites.
Final Texas-Oklahoma Prediction & Pick: Texas -8.5 (-110)
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