The USC Trojans take on the Stanford Cardinal. Check out our college football odds series for our USC Stanford prediction and pick.
Stanford head coach David Shaw is unafraid to say what he really thinks. In August, he didn't expressly mention USC, but he did say that he thinks his 2022 Stanford team is being profoundly underrated and overlooked.
Shaw is optimistic that a turnaround is coming at Stanford, which last played in the Pac-12 Championship Game in 2017 and has certainly fallen on hard times. Everyone is wondering if Shaw can build back the Trees to the standard established from 2011-2015, when he took over from Jim Harbaugh and presided over an elite program which won multiple Pac-12 titles and Rose Bowls, and was regularly a part of the national conversation. Shaw did pull in a very highly-rated recruiting class this year, and so the conversation turns to the ability of Shaw to quickly develop his players. If he gets some elite performances from some of his prized freshmen recruits in this game, USC could be in real trouble. The counterbalance to that point, however, is that in Week 2, it's less likely — not more — that young players will max out. They're more likely to thrive later in the season. Nevertheless, Shaw's Stanford team beat USC soundly one year ago. Even with all the positive additions USC has made to its own roster, Shaw thinks Stanford is being overlooked, and you know he's gunning for Lincoln Riley.
USC showed in its 66-14 win over Rice that the first year of the Lincoln Riley era will not be boring. USC scored 66 points in a game for the first time since 2008, which was the last great year of the Pete Carroll dynasty in Los Angeles. We're 14 years removed from that year, and USC is starving for national relevance. Here comes a chance to make a statement: ABC, prime time, the eyes of the nation watching a Pac-12 game because Lincoln Riley is coaching in it.
USC's offense looks special. Caleb Williams was 19 of 22 passing against Rice. Of course the opponent wasn't very good, but 19 of 22 in any football game is impressive if the pass attempts are anything more than screens or checkdowns. USC's offensive line comes into this game healthy. That is the big key for this offense: getting Williams protection and carving out running lanes in the ground game. USC's offense should be able to do what it needs to do.
The problem: The defense has to make that possible.
USC's defense gave up a 16-play touchdown drive early against Rice. The defense played better in the second half, but concerns about the ability to play physical football on the defensive line are legitimate. Stanford would love to control the ball and keep it away from Caleb Williams. That's how opponents can beat USC in 2022: by not allowing Williams to have the ball. USC's offense is great, but Stanford will try to keep that offense off the field as much as possible.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the USC-Stanford College Football odds.
College Football Odds: USC-Stanford Odds
USC: -7.5 (-115)
Stanford: +7.5 (-105)
Over: 67.5 (-110)
Under: 67.5 (-110)
Why USC Could Cover the Spread
USC's offense versus Stanford's defense is a mismatch. Stanford simply does not have the horses to keep pace with USC in a shootout. Even if USC gives up 31 points, it will score more than that unless Stanford keeps the ball for 38 or more minutes in this game. USC has a 40-points-per-game offense. Stanford's offense therefore has to be virtually perfect to cover the spread.
Why Stanford Could Cover the Spread
If Rice could pull off a 16-play touchdown drive and convert third and fourth downs against USC to keep Caleb Williams on the sidelines, Stanford can certainly do this as well. USC's defense is so weak right now that Stanford can control the ball and thereby keep the game very close for four quarters.
Final USC-Stanford Prediction & Pick
If USC needs a touchdown to win the game late, Caleb Williams will score it, so the Trojans are going to win outright. However, USC's weakness on the defensive line is likely to get exposed early in the season. Stanford can and probably will keep the game close. Obviously, if Stanford commits a few turnovers, USC could blow the doors off the Trees, but if Stanford plays a clean offensive game, this is not going to be a blowout.
Final USC-Stanford Prediction & Pick: Stanford +7.5
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