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In the first few weeks of the 2024 NFL season, the Washington Commanders were one of the hottest offenses in the NFL. Now, in the second half of the season, the Commanders haven't looked nearly as strong as they did, and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury's name is all over the downward trend.
However, coming into Week 12 against the Dallas Cowboys, Kingsbury denied any idea that opposing defenses were catching onto the type of offense Washington runs, per Grant Paulsen of the Monumental Sports Network.
Yet, against a struggling Cowboys defense, the Commanders led three straight three-and-out drives in the second half, showing a real lack of offensive firepower. Throughout the contest, Washington was just 4-of-12 on third downs, failing to convert on 66% of drives in Week 12.
And while rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels was being touted as a shoo-in for this year's Offensive Rookie of the Year, the expected Kingsbury fall-off is right on schedule.
Commanders' OC Kliff Kingsbury continues second-half slump trend in 2024
There's a consistent theme with Kingsbury's offense, and it appears to be on schedule in 2024 with Daniels and the Commanders, as pointed out by Theo Ash on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Seemingly every season, Kingsbury-coached offenses see a high peak in either September or October. Then, in November and December, Kingsbury's offense takes a deep dive.
And that's being seen once again this year. After starting red hot this season, the Commanders' offense has lacked the pop they had through the first few weeks.
Now, maybe this is just a coincidence— unlikely— but for it to happen for five seasons in a row appears as much more than just a coincidence.
Looking at Daniels' throw chart throughout the season, there are many throws within five or 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and it's hard to have an efficient offense for 17 weeks running such an offense. Not only are a lot of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage but many are thrown to the right side of the field.
For defensive coordinators that comb through data and film of Kingsbury's offense, it's clear that defenses are picking up on their tendencies, regardless of what Kingsbury thinks.
However, Washington could be in for a rude awakening later this year. With December— Kingsbury's worst month of the season statistically— creeping up, the Commanders' offense could be in trouble if he doesn't put a stop to this ugly trend.
