The Dallas Mavericks are up for a challenge on Tuesday night as the scorching Miami Heat pay a visit to American Airlines Center. Dallas fans will definitely keep their eyes glued to this upcoming Mavericks-Heat matchup, which is why we will offer some predictions ahead of tip-off.
The Mavericks may be 4-2 on the young season, but it doesn't seem like they have found the kind of offensive groove they've played with the previous two seasons. Against Miami's suffocating defense, it may be tough for the Mavericks to finally establish their rhythm.
Nonetheless, with a superstar like Luka Doncic leading the way, Dallas could light up the box score on any given night. It would definitely make them feel good if they get a signature Mavs victory against a Heat squad that is arguably the most dominant team in the league so far. But that won't come easy against the team with the league's best defense and fourth-best offense.
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Dallas Mavericks predictions v. Heat
1. Frank Ntilikina will further establish himself as a rotation player off the bench
Reserve guard Frank Ntilikina played his best game of the young season in the Mavericks' most recent win over the Sacramento Kings. Frankie Smokes scored 12 points of 4-of-6 shooting in a season-high 20 minutes off the bench. After playing just garbage minutes in his first two appearances, as well as not even playing in the second game of the season, Ntilikina has seen his playing time go up gradually.
The Frenchman is known for his defense, and that will be his main calling card in establishing a defined role in Jason Kidd's rotation. With Miami bringing Tyler Herro off the bench, look for Kidd to counter with the defensive-minded Ntilikina to try to neutralize the spitfire guard.
2. Luka Doncic will go perfect from the free-throw line
Luka Doncic shot poorly from the charity stripe against the Kings, going just 2-of-6 on the evening. The Slovenian acknowledged his struggles and even wondered out loud why his logo 3s go in but his supposedly easier shots (i.e. free throws) do not.
Doncic probably put in some extra work from the foul line in practice as he looks to erase that bad foul-shooting night versus Sacramento behind him. It may just be coincidence, but Doncic has gone perfect from the 15-foot parallel alternately this season. As a believer of trends, I could see Luka cashing in on all his free throws on Tuesday, especially after that sour free-throw shooting night against the Kings.
3. Dallas will come out to a fast start
Despite holding a 4-2 record and the solo third seed in the West, the Mavs have been slow out of the gates this season as their offense has yet to click to the level it was at the previous two campaigns. They rank 27th across the league in offensive rating, per NBA.com, which is a far cry from their standing in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, where they finished first and eighth, respectively.
This slow start has also been reflective in nearly all their games so far. The Mavs have trailed after the first quarter in all but their most recent game against the Kings. Dallas raced out to a nine-point lead after one against Sacramento.
That sight became familiar for Mavs fans last year, with their squad coming out like a house on fire with Luka Doncic leading the charge while his supporting cast bombards the opposing squad with 3-pointers left and right. Dallas seemed to have gained some semblance of its form in the win against the Kings. With that, look for the Mavs to come out guns blazing in front of their home crowd, especially against a Heat team they have some history with.
4. Mavericks will lose, but not by double digits
The Mavericks will ultimately lose on Tuesday to the scorching Miami Heat. However, they won't succumb to Miami the way the five fallen Heat opponents — which includes the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets — have gone down this season. The Heat have won their five games by an average of 22.6 points this season. That includes a 42-point beatdown of the defending champs and a 26-point blowout win over the surging Memphis Grizzlies.
Miami holds the top net rating in the NBA and has held its opponents to 97 points per game so far this season. That means they are getting the job done on both ends of the floor. But with Dallas coming off a solid win over the Kings, they should give the Heat a good challenge on Tuesday night.
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