The UFC is back on the international stage as UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint-Denis lands in the Accor Arena from Paris, France. We’ll bring you a betting prediction and pick for this next Prelim in the Flyweight (125) Division as Spain’s Daniel Barez takes on Mexico’s Victor Altamirano. Check out our UFC odds series for our Barez-Altamirano prediction and pick.
Daniel Barez (16-6) is 0-1 in the UFC after dropping his debut fight to Jafel Filho over a year ago. Formerly a DWCS competitor in 2021, Barez went 4-0 in other organizations before landing back with the UFC. A talented prospect, he’ll hope to finally get his first UFC win under the belt. Barez stands 5’6″ with a 66-inch reach.
Victor Altamirano (12-4) has gone 2-3 under the UFC banner since joining the roster in 2022. Also a Contender Series alum, Altamirano notched back-to-back wins before going on his current two-fight losing streak. Still, his most recent loss came by Split Decision and he’s determined for a more definitive result this time around. Altamirano stands 5’8″ with a 70-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Paris Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Paris Odds: Daniel Barez-Victor Altamirano Odds
Daniel Barez: +105
Victor Altamirano: -125
Over 2.5 rounds: -280
Under 2.5 rounds: +210
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Why Daniel Barez Will Win
Daniel Barez fights with an extremely aggressive boxing style and puts everything behind his shots. He has a very strong frame for the Flyweight Division and he likes to immediately take the center of the octagon and crowd his opponent. Barez is a very seasoned boxer and throws his punches with great precision, keeping his shots tight and snapping opponents on the end of his punches. His power at the weight class is apparent and he has rare knockout ability for his stature. The one knock on his game could be that he keeps his hands too low when engaging with opponents, but Barez has the confidence knowing he can usually end the fight if he’s able to land first.
Given the willingness of his opponent to meet in the center of the octagon, Daniel Barez should have ample opportunities to stand and strike while showcasing his hands. Still, Altamirano is a tough opponent to put away and it’ll take a balanced, but patient attack from Barez to win this fight. Barez notably also throws low leg kicks with a ton of force, so don’t be surprised if he uses that tactic early on in the fight hoping to slow his opponent’s forward movement.
Why Victor Altamirano Will Win
Victor Altamirano has been on the bad side of two split decisions up to this point and he’ll be hoping to put an exclamation mark on the end of this fight. He’s only finished one of his UFC bouts by knocking his opponent out, but he’s more than capable of chasing a submission finish from a compromised spot like we’ve seen in many of his previous fights. Altamirano is most known for his toughness and ability to stay within the pocket while absorbing damage. He walks forward through the fire and indicative through his last few fights, it’ll be very tough to put him away during this one.
Victor Altamirano will have a solid four-inch reach advantage during this fight and given his opponent’s tendency to leave his hands down, Altamirano could see success snapping his jab out front and trying to stun Barez during his entries. Altamirano also likes to use his clinch work and wrestling along the fence to tire opponents out, so don’t be surprised if he tries to test the cardio of Barez in this one. Ultimately, the dirtier this fight can look, the more it will favor Altamirano during a three-round decision.
Final Daniel Barez-Victor Altamirano Prediction & Pick
This should be a fun scrap between two talented Flyweights and we’ll see a different skillset imposed by both men. Daniel Barez is primed to walk his opponent down and throw massive shots in hopes of finding the knockout. Altamirano will soon realize he won’t be able to absorb too many of Barez’ overhands and hard leg kicks if he chooses to stand in front of him.
Victor Altamirano, on the other hand, is a volume fighter and like’s to instill damage slowly, but steadily over three rounds. He also has a tremendous gas tank and if he’s able to tire Barez out, his striking and volume could turn the tide in his favor during the later rounds.
For our final prediction, we’re going to roll with Victor Altamirano to get the win in this fight. While the power of Barez will be an issue early on, his opponent hasn’t really succeeded against UFC-level competition up to this point. If Altamirano can survive and extend this fight, he should be able to win a hard-fought decision.
Final Daniel Barez-Victor Altamirano Prediction & Pick: Victor Altamirano (-125)
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