The Los Angeles Dodgers were the favorites heading into the 2023 National League Division Series (NLDS) against the Arizona Diamondbacks. After all, LA was fresh off a first-round bye and had ace Clayton Kershaw set to start Game 1 at home.
And then the wheels fell off.
The Diamondbacks scored six runs in the first inning of Game 1 and Kershaw failed to complete the inning. Arizona went on to win Game 1 11-2. AZ followed that up with a 4-2 Game 2 victory. So how have the Diamondbacks, despite being the underdogs, shocked the Dodgers?
Aggressive offense and establishing themselves early
Clayton Kershaw likes to throw strikes. He doesn't walk many hitters and tends to work in the zone.
When Kershaw is on his game, he grabs his brush and paints the corners to perfection. In Game 1, Kershaw was unable to settle into any kind of rhythm because the Diamondbacks came out swinging.
The primary mistake teams make against Kershaw is taking too many pitches. If he gets you down in an 0-2 or 1-2 count, Kershaw is going to turn to his filthy breaking pitches and either record a strikeout or weak ground ball/pop up. Arizona's aggressiveness kept the pressure on Kershaw and the Dodgers early in the game.
Arizona did not take their foot off the gas as the contest rolled on. The Diamondbacks fully understand that the Dodgers' offense is capable of hanging a crooked number in any inning, so they continued to score runs at will.
This led to their convincing Game 1 win.
Game 2 was obviously much closer. That said, the Diamondbacks implemented a similar strategy.
Arizona stayed aggressive against Bobby Miller. But it was a different kind of aggression. Miller doesn't throw as many strikes as Kershaw, so the Diamondbacks implemented a bit more patience. When Miller attacked the zone though, Arizona did not let up and they took advantage. As a result, Miller only pitched into the second inning.
The Diamondbacks once again took an early lead. Their ability to establish themselves early has been important. Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and the offense will probably attack Dodgers' Game 3 pitcher Lance Lynn in similar fashion.
Diamondbacks' pitching has stepped up
The Diamondbacks have utilized a tremendous pitching strategy. Sure, it's easy to say the Dodgers' offense is simply slumping through the first two games. The fact is that Los Angeles' lineup features plenty of stars. If the pitching they are facing wasn't all that good, the Dodgers' offense would be performing better.
So the Diamondbacks deserve credit.
Merrill Kelly pitched Game 1 for Arizona and turned in a gem. He allowed no runs and just three hits across 6.1 innings pitched. Arizona's bullpen gave up two runs after Kelly's departure but it didn't matter given AZ's lopsided lead.
Kelly and the Diamondbacks approached the Dodgers lineup with caution. They opted not to let LA's best hitters defeat them. As a result, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman combined for just five total at-bats (not be confused with actual plate appearances) in Game 1. Meanwhile, Betts and Freeman combined to draw three walks. JD Martinez, who's also been one of the Dodgers better hitters, walked once as well.
Arizona was clearly willing to let the rest of LA's lineup swing the bats, and the Dodgers scored just two runs in Game 1.
Zac Gallen took the ball in Game 2 and gave the Diamondbacks 5.2 innings of two-run baseball. Gallen was more aggressive against the Dodgers stars. This is understandable because he happens to be an ace-caliber pitcher himself.
Gallen's aggression led to a good, albeit far from tremendous start. But he did more than enough to help the D'backs win the game. Arizona's bullpen shutout the Dodgers after Gallen was removed in the 6th and AZ won 4-2.
Looking ahead
The Dodgers and Diamondbacks will head to Arizona for Game 3. The D'Backs will have an opportunity to book their ticket to the NLCS with a victory. Though, they will certainly not take anything for granted since they are playing a very talented Dodgers ball club.
Brandon Pfaadt will start Game 3 for the Diamondbacks. He isn't a superstar and endured struggles in 2023. We can expect him to pitch Freeman, Betts, and Martinez with extra caution. If the Dodgers want to win Game 3, they will need players like Will Smith, Max Muncy, and others to get the job done.
Lance Lynn is set to take the ball for LA. He's a hard-throwing right-hander who leans on his fastball. This doesn't exactly bode well against the Diamondbacks' aggressive approach at the plate. Lynn's control will need to be on point in order to contain Arizona's lineup.
Game 3's first pitch is scheduled for 9:07 PM EST on Wednesday.
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