The Arizona Diamondbacks (27-10) travel to the city of brotherly love to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (22-24) Monday night. This game will continue our MLB odds series with a Diamondbacks-Phillies prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
The Diamondbacks are sitting just 1.5 games out of first place in the NL West division. In the last 10 games, Arizona is 7-3, including a series win against the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend. Arizona has won three straight series, with those wins coming against the San Francisco Giants, Oakland Athletics and Pirates. In the last week, the Diamondbacks are batting just .240, but on the season they are fourth in the MLB in that statistic. They are pitching pretty well in their last week, though. The Diamondbacks have been able to lower their season ERA by pitching to the tune of a 3.74 ERA in their last six games.
The Phillies have been up and down all season. They are coming off a series win against the Chicago Cubs over the weekend, though. Philadelphia is .500 in their last 10 games, but they do play better at home. As a team, the Phillies are top-10 in batting average, but bottom-10 in runs scored. Philadelphia can hit the ball well, but they struggle with runners on base. On the mound, the Phillies are bottom-10 in ERA in the MLB, but have a respectable 3.88 ERA in the last week.
Tommy Henry will start for the Diamondbacks while Zack Wheeler takes the ball for Philadelphia.
Here are the Diamondbacks-Phillies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Phillies Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-110)
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (-110)
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
How To Watch Diamondbacks vs. Phillies
TV: Bally Sports Arizona, NBC Sports Philadelphia
Stream: MLB TV Subscription
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies have an above average chase rate this season. They tend to swing at a lot of pitches outside of the strike zone. Henry might not strike a lot of batters out, but he does get people to chase. He is in the 73rd percentile in chase rate, so he gets a good amount of hitters to swing at pitches outside of the zone against him. If he can force the Phillies to chase those pitches and live on the corners, the Diamondbacks will be in good position to keep this one close and cover the spread.
The Phillies are also batting .234 against left-handed pitching this season. That is 38 points worse than their average against right-handed pitching. The Phillies like to chase pitches out of the zone and they struggle against lefties, so on paper, Henry should be able to have a good game in this one.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies are facing a pitcher that does not strike anybody out. Henry has just 13 strikeouts in 27 innings pitched this season. He wants to get batters out by keeping them off balance and forcing weak contact. However, the Phillies have played just eight games in which they have struck out less than seven times (Henry's season high is four). In those games, the Phillies have a record of 6-2. With an offense as good as the one in Philadelphia, it is dangerous to allow them to keep making contact throughout the game. As long as the Phillies can get timed up early, they will have an explosive day at the plate.
Zack Wheeler has done a good job this year. Although his ERA is above 4.00, Wheeler has a low WHIP of 1.20. He also has 61 strikeouts in 51 innings pitched while allowing just two home runs. He is in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity and 93rd percentile in barrel percentage. This means he does not allow opponents to hit the ball hard off him. The Diamonbacks have the fourth fewest strikeouts in the MLB, so if Wheeler can induce weak contact and force the Diamondbacks to make weak outs, the Phillies will cover the spread.
Final Diamondbacks-Phillies Prediction & Pick
This game is going to be closer than expected. The Phillies are just 7-13 against teams over .500 this season. The Diamondbacks are a good team and above .500. It is not unreasonable to think they can win this game. However, with Zack Wheeler ont he mound and this being a home game, the Phillies should be able to pull this one out. Expect Philadelphia to win a close game in this one, but ultimately cover the spread.
Final Diamondbacks-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Phillies -1.5 (-110), Over 8.5 (-115)
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