The Los Angeles Dodgers must make a decision on whether to retain or release Trevor Bauer to their 40-man roster by Friday, and there is intriguing evidence to the former that might lead to the pitcher staying with the team in 2023.

Under Bauer's current contract, the Dodgers have to pay him $22.5 million this year whether he plays for them, sits on their bench or plays for a rival. The Dodgers have unusual incentives to keep Bauer, primarily that they could be on the hook to pay him next season even if he pitches for a competitor willing to take a chance on him.

And they've seen it happen before, back in 2015 with Aroldis Chapman. Per the Wall Street Journal:

“In late 2015, the Dodgers traded to acquire closer Aroldis Chapman…but backed out when a reporter obtained a police report detailing a domestic dispute between Chapman and his then-girlfriend…Chapman received the first-ever suspension under the domestic violence policy…and the Yankees signed him at a damaged-goods discount for the 2016 season. The Yankees then flipped Chapman to the Cubs at the trade deadline and received a top prospect in return. Chapman went on to help win the World Series with the Cubs and then returned to New York the next year in free agency. At the end of this chain of events, the Cubs got a ring, the Yankees got a prospect and a closer, and the Dodgers watched from home.”

It would only cost another team a league minimum $720,000 to sign Bauer, under a policy agreed to by the MLB and players' association where a club can't release a player without pay after he serves a suspension.

It's a tough spot to be in for the Dodgers front office: if they release Trevor Bauer, they'll be on the hook for the nearly $23 million, and could still be watching him pitch for a competitor next season. Bauer last appeared for the Dodgers in Jun. 2021.

Despite the claims against the controversial pitcher and the firestorm it could create by keeping him, the Dodgers might be hesitant to cut ties after the Chapman fiasco seven years ago.