We’re back with another betting prediction and pick for UFC Louisville as it’s finally time for the Co-Main Event of the fight card, taking place in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division. Former title challenger and No. 15-ranked Dominick Reyes will take on the streaking Dustin Jacoby of Colorado. Check out our UFC odds series for our Reyes-Jacoby prediction and pick.
Dominick Reyes (12-4) has gone 6-4 inside the UFC since 2017. He’s a former title challenger and had the biggest fight of his career against Jon Jones in 2020. Since then, however, Reyes has gone to lose his last three consecutive fights, including multiple cancellations before this bout. He’ll be looking to finally get back in the win column after revitalizing his game. Reyes stands 6’4″ with a 77-inch reach.
Dustin Jacoby (19-8-1) has gone 7-5-1 in the UFC since 2011. He notched six-straight wins to start his UFC career, but quickly evened-out going 1-3 in his last four fights. His most recent bout was a unanimous decision loss to Alonzo Menifield following his knockout victory over Kennedy Nzechukwu. Jacoby stands 6’3″ with a 76-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Louisville Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Louisville Odds: Dominick Reyes-Dustin Jacoby Odds
Dominick Reyes: +185
Dustin Jacoby: -220
Over 2.5 rounds: +120
Under 2.5 rounds: -150
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Why Dominick Reyes Will Win
Dominick Reyes had a tough fall from the top of the sport as he barely lost a five-round championship fight to Jon Jones back in 2020. To this day, it’s the closest fight anyone has ever given Jon Jones and it was a tell-tale sign of the potential Reyes is capable of. He was fed three of the toughest fights in that division following the loss and he hasn’t been able to find his groove ever since. That could be the reason he’s coming into this fight as the betting underdog, but he’s still only 34 years old and has a few good performances left inside of him. Reyes is a very devastating puncher and can sit any opponent down if he lands clean.
Dominick Reyes is also very active with his kicking game and his career has shown that he has a solid chin. However, he’s been knocked out a few times leading up to this, so he won’t want to take any clean shots from his opponent here. Reyes should be able to utilize his range here and keep Jacoby at distance with his leg kicks. The power is also the last thing to go in a fighter and given his level in this sport, it’s guaranteed that the power is still there for Reyes. Look for him to find success on the feet if Jacoby begins closing the distance and walking towards Reyes.
Why Dustin Jacoby Will Win
Dustin Jacoby had a stellar start to his UFC tenure, but he ran into some trouble once his competition got increasingly more difficult. His ability to work his way inside with dirty boxing is often a big issue for opponents. Jacoby can also take a shot and he’s been good about limiting his damage over the last few fights. He’s much more effective when chasing the knockout and marching forward with his long punches. He has an awkward striking style and doesn’t throw with much of a rhythm, so it’s increasingly difficult to hit him as the fight wears on.
Dustin Jacoby is coming into this fight as the betting favorite and he has a chance to make a name for himself by beating a former title challenger in Dominick Reyes. Jacoby is also very good about stuffing takedowns and keeping the fight where he’s comfortable, so expect these two to duke it out on the feet. If Dustin Jacoby can catch Reyes second-guessing himself, he should be able to come forward with a straight shot and end this fight early.
Final Dominick Reyes-Dustin Jacoby Prediction & Pick
This is a very interested fight and if it were taking place just a few years prior, the odds could be flipped in the other direction. However, we haven’t seen Dominick Reyes fight at a high level since facing Jon Jones and this will truly be a litmus test for how far along in his career he is. Dustin Jacoby, on the other hand, is finally coming into his own after facing tougher competition and this will undoubtedly be his toughest test to-date.
The fight should primarily take place on the feet and I don’t expect either fighter to take a chance and shoot for the takedown. They have similar physical builds, but I think the experience fighting against the best will be the difference for Reyes in this one. He also has his back against the wall and is truly looking to bounce back in his career, so we like him on the plus money line. Let’s roll will Dominick Reyes to get back on track with a win here.
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Final Dominick Reyes-Dustin Jacoby Prediction & Pick: Dominick Reyes (+185)
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