The Main Card action continues to roll at UFC Louisville as we shift our attention to the Middleweight (185) Division for our next betting prediction and pick. Dangerous finishers will meet as Brazil’s Brunno Ferreira will take on Pennsylvania’s Dustin Stoltzfus in a competitive bout for both men. Check out our UFC odds series for our Ferreira-Stoltzfus prediction and pick.
Brunno Ferreira (11-1) has gone 2-1 through his first 3 bouts in the UFC. With eight finishes by knockout and three by submission, Ferreira has never seen the third round of an MMA fight, including losing in the first round as well. He won’t be looking to change a thing as he tries for the quick finish during this one. Ferreira stands 5’10” with a 72-inch reach.
Dustin Stoltzfus (15-5) has gone 2-4 in the UFC since 2020. He’s alternated wins and losses over his last four fights and won his most recent bout against Punahele Soriano. Coming in as the heavy underdog suring this fight, Stoltzfus will look to prove the doubters wrong once again in this bout. He stands 6’0″ with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Louisville Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Louisville Odds: Brunno Ferreira-Dustin Stoltzfus Odds
Brunno Ferreira: -245
Dustin Stoltzfus: +210
Over 1.5 rounds: +105
Under 1.5 rounds: -135
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Why Brunno Ferreira Will Win
Brunno Ferreira has been an absolute terror in the cage since he began MMA and his style is perfectly conducive for a banger each time he steps in there. He doesn’t worry too much about his own well-being and he’s willing to throw himself into the fire with a barrage of fists and kicks. On the ground, Ferreira is extremely versed in jiu jitsu and can quickly turn his offense into submission attempts from the top. He has yet to see more than 10 minutes in the cage, so we’ll see how quickly he can put away Stoltzfus in this one.
Brunno Ferreira will eventually have to see a decision in his UFC career, but he’s fully content with going out and finishing the fight early, no matter the result. We’ve also seen him display a solid chin and since his opponent doesn’t throw the most powerful strikes, he should be able to walk through some of these and survive the distance. His cardio in the later rounds in still a major question mark in his game, so we’ll see if Stoltzfus chooses to exploit that aspect and make Ferreira work for the win.
Why Dustin Stoltzfus Will Win
Making his fifth appearance in the UFC, Dustin Stoltzfus would like to find some consistency through his career thus far. He’s shown flashes of incredible toughness and resolve, while at times, he can come out flat and look out of rhythm. His last fight against Punahele Soriano was a banger as Stoltzfus was able to withstand the early striking onslaught from his opponent. Soon enough, Stoltzfus was able to employ his grappling and take Soriano’s back for a submission finish. Look for him to continue looking for opportunities to switch position and change this fight in an instant.
Dustin Stoltzfus will be successful during this fight if he’s able to make it look as ugly as possible and survive the first two rounds. He has more experience than his opponent and has seen plenty of decisions in his fight career. With Ferreira never being tested in the later rounds, Stoltzfus could look to drag this one out along the fence and wait for Ferreira’s gas tank to wither. Then, Stoltzfus can turn on the jets and really pressure Ferreira into making a costly mistake late.
Final Brunno Ferreira-Dustin Stoltzfus Prediction & Pick
This fight is a clash of two differing styles and it’ll be interesting to see which man comes out victorious. While Bruno Ferreira is the favorite, he’s never seen the third round of a fight and his inexperience in the later rounds could serve as an advantage for Stoltzfus. We’ve seen Stoltzfus survive through adversity and turn the tide later in fights, so don’t be surprised if he waits patiently for his moment before striking here.
Brunno Ferreira certainly has the edge during this fight with his striking power and submission attempts on the ground. Stoltzfus isn’t nearly as devastating of a puncher, but he does a great job of rolling with punches and turning it into takedown attempts along the fence.
This fight is ultimately a matter of whether Ferreira will turn the light out early, or whether Stoltzfus can extend this fight and turn the tide in his favor during the later rounds. For our prediction, let’s roll with the total over as Stoltzfus manages to extend this fight into the third round. From there, it’s completely unknown how Ferreira will perform, but don’t be surprised if we see several swings in the momentum here.
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Final Brunno Ferreira-Dustin Stoltzfus Prediction & Pick: Brunno Ferreira (-245); OVER 1.5 Rounds (+105)
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