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The NBA season comes to an end, but the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament is just starting, and we have a tilt between the Golden State Warriors and the Memphis Grizzlies battling for their spot in the playoffs on Tuesday. It's time to continue our NBA Play-In odds series with a Warriors-Grizzlies prediction and pick.
The Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies clash Tuesday night in a high-stakes play-in tournament game to determine the Western Conference's seventh seed. Both teams finished the regular season at 48-34, but Golden State holds home-court advantage at Chase Center. The Warriors, led by Stephen Curry (24.5 PPG) and Jimmy Butler (17.5 PPG), boast elite ball control and perimeter shooting. Meanwhile, Memphis, anchored by Ja Morant (23.2 PPG) and Jaren Jackson Jr., excels in rebounding and shot-blocking. With contrasting styles, Golden State’s three-point barrage versus Memphis’ interior dominance, this matchup promises intensity and playoff-level drama
Here are the Warriors-Grizzlies NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Play-In Odds: Grizzlies-Warriors Odds
Memphis Grizzlies: +7 (-112)
Moneyline: +235
Golden State Warriors: -7 (-108)
Moneyline: -290
Over: 229 (-110)
Under: 229 (-110)
How To Watch Warriors vs. Grizzlies NBA Play-In 2025
Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00 PM PT
TV: TNT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Grizzlies Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Memphis Grizzlies have a strong case to win or cover the 7-point spread against the Golden State Warriors in Tuesday’s play-in tournament matchup. Memphis boasts one of the league’s most potent offenses, averaging 121.7 points per game, significantly higher than Golden State’s 113.8. Their ability to control the glass, led by Zach Edey’s 8.3 rebounds per game, and Jaren Jackson Jr.’s elite rim protection (1.53 blocks per game), could neutralize the Warriors’ perimeter-heavy attack. Additionally, Memphis has excelled in close games this season, sporting a 9-6 record in contests decided by fewer than four points.
Recent form also favors Memphis, as they’ve posted the sixth-best efficiency differential (+8.8) since April 3rd, showcasing balanced scoring and improved defense under interim head coach Tuomas Iisalo. While Golden State has home-court advantage, Memphis’ depth and versatility could pose problems for a Warriors team overly reliant on Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. The Grizzlies’ ability to push the pace and capitalize on transition opportunities will be key against Golden State’s lack of rim protection. If Memphis can limit turnovers and exploit their rebounding edge, they are well-positioned to keep the game close or pull off an upset outright.
Why the Warriors Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Golden State Warriors are well-positioned to win and cover the 7-point spread against the Memphis Grizzlies in Tuesday's play-in tournament matchup. Golden State holds key advantages, starting with their home-court edge at Chase Center, where they’ve thrived all season. The Warriors boast a top-10 defense, allowing just 110.5 points per game, which will be critical in slowing Memphis’ high-octane offense led by Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. Additionally, Golden State’s offensive firepower, driven by Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler, has proven effective against Memphis, as evidenced by their 3-1 regular-season record against the Grizzlies.
Memphis enters the game struggling, having lost 10 of their last 16 contests, and their defense ranks just 24th in the league, allowing 116.9 points per game. This defensive vulnerability plays right into Golden State’s hands, especially with Curry’s ability to dominate from beyond the arc and Butler’s knack for clutch performances. The Warriors’ depth also gives them an edge, as players like Draymond Green contribute on both ends of the floor. Furthermore, head coach Steve Kerr’s playoff experience is a decisive factor in high-pressure games like this. With Golden State’s superior defense, balanced scoring attack, and Memphis’ recent struggles, the Warriors are primed not only to secure the win but also to cover the spread comfortably.
Final Grizzlies-Warriors Prediction & Pick
The Golden State Warriors are poised to win and cover the 7-point spread against the Memphis Grizzlies in Tuesday's play-in tournament matchup. Golden State holds a decisive edge, having won three of four regular-season meetings, including a dominant 134-125 victory on April 1 behind Stephen Curry’s 52-point explosion. At Chase Center, the Warriors’ home-court advantage is significant, as they’ve consistently performed well there throughout the season. With Curry and Jimmy Butler leading a balanced offense, Golden State should exploit Memphis’ defensive struggles, as the Grizzlies rank 24th in points allowed per game (116.9).
While Memphis boasts the league’s second-best offense (121.7 PPG), their inconsistency down the stretch and reliance on Ja Morant make them vulnerable against Golden State’s eighth-ranked defense (110.5 PPG allowed). The Warriors’ ability to limit turnovers and control tempo will be key in neutralizing Memphis’ transition game. Additionally, Golden State’s playoff experience under Steve Kerr gives them an edge in high-pressure situations. Expect the Warriors to outpace Memphis offensively, covering the spread in this pivotal play-in showdown.
Final Grizzlies-Warriors Prediction & Pick: Golden State Warriors -7 (-108), Over
