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The NBA season comes to an end, but the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament is just starting, and we have a tilt between the Miami Heat and the Atlanta Hawks battling for their spot in the playoffs on Friday. It's time to continue our NBA Play-In odds series with a Heat-Hawks prediction and pick.
Friday’s Eastern Conference play-in finale features the Miami Heat visiting the Atlanta Hawks, with the winner clinching the No. 8 seed and a playoff date with Cleveland. Both teams split their regular-season series 2-2, with the home team winning every matchup.
Miami enters with momentum after dominating Chicago behind Tyler Herro’s 38-point outburst, while Atlanta looks to bounce back after a disappointing loss to Orlando. The key battle will be between star guards Herro and Trae Young, with Bam Adebayo and Onyeka Okongwu anchoring the paint. Expect a high-intensity, win-or-go-home showdown in Atlanta.
Here are the Heat-Hawks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Play-In Odds: Heat-Hawks Odds
Miami Heat: -1 (-106)
Moneyline: -116
Atlanta Hawks: +1 (-114)
Moneyline: -102
Over: 218.5 (-112)
Under: 218.5 (-108)
How To Watch Heat vs. Hawks NBA Play-In 2025
Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00 PM PT
TV: TNT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Heat Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Miami Heat are poised to win or at least cover the spread against the Atlanta Hawks in Friday’s play-in showdown thanks to their proven playoff pedigree and recent dominance in head-to-head matchups. Miami enters this elimination game with momentum, having dismantled the Bulls 109-90 behind a stifling defense and a red-hot Tyler Herro.
The Heat have won two of their last three meetings with Atlanta since the trade deadline, both by double digits, shooting over 55% in those victories.
While the Hawks are slight home favorites, Miami’s ability to execute in high-pressure games under coach Erik Spoelstra cannot be overstated. The Heat’s disciplined defense and half-court execution consistently frustrate Atlanta’s offense, which has struggled when forced out of transition and into set plays.
Atlanta’s recent form raises concerns, especially after a lackluster offensive showing in their first play-in loss to Orlando, where they shot just 38% from the field and managed only four fastbreak points. The Hawks’ supporting cast has been unreliable, and their frontcourt injuries have left them vulnerable to Miami’s interior attack led by Bam Adebayo.
With Andrew Wiggins providing a scoring punch and Herro in peak form, Miami has multiple weapons to exploit Atlanta’s defensive lapses. Given the Heat’s recent head-to-head edge, playoff experience, and the Hawks’ inconsistency, Miami is well-positioned to cover the slim spread—and could easily win outright to secure a playoff rematch with the Cavaliers.
Why the Hawks Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Atlanta Hawks are well-positioned to win or cover the spread against the Miami Heat on Friday largely due to their home-court advantage and the dynamic play of Trae Young. The Hawks have split the season series 2-2 with Miami, and notably, the home team has won each matchup—Atlanta by an average of 11 points in their two games at State Farm Arena.
Trae Young, who leads the league in assists, remains a constant threat to break down Miami’s defense, and the Hawks’ ability to push the pace at home could be the difference-maker.
Onyeka Okongwu’s presence in the paint also gives Atlanta a defensive anchor capable of matching up with Bam Adebayo, while the supporting cast, including Mouhamed Gueye and Georges Niang, has shown the ability to step up in key moments.
While the Hawks struggled offensively in their previous play-in game, shooting just 38% from the field, a return home should provide a much-needed boost. Miami’s offense, though efficient in recent games, is not among the league’s elite, and Atlanta’s ability to control tempo and create transition opportunities could expose the Heat’s occasional half-court stagnation.
With the spread set at just 1.5 points in favor of Atlanta, the Hawks’ track record at home, and their urgency in a win-or-go-home scenario make them a strong pick to cover. Expect a high-energy performance from Trae Young and a Hawks team eager to prove themselves and secure a playoff berth against Cleveland.
Final Heat-Hawks Prediction & Pick
The Atlanta Hawks enter Friday’s play-in matchup as slight home favorites, but the Miami Heat’s playoff experience and recent momentum make them the pick to win and cover the spread. Miami just routed Chicago and has a knack for rising in elimination games, while the Hawks are coming off a lopsided loss to Orlando.
The teams split their season series with the home team winning each time, but Miami’s disciplined defense and clutch shot-making give them the edge in a high-stakes setting. Expect the Heat to pull off a road upset and secure the No. 8 seed in the East.
Final Heat-Hawks Prediction & Pick: Miami Heat -1 (-106), Over 218.5 (-112)
