The Baltimore Ravens have Lamar Jackson back in the saddle despite another missed practice. And they have a key division game against the Bengals. Also, here is the Ravens’ playoff picture with updated DVOA, The Athletic, and ESPN model before their Week 15 game.
Sitting in second place in the AFC North, the Ravens are 6-7. They are coming off a disappointing loss to the Steelers. And they got whipped by the Bengals in a recent meeting.
Getting to the playoffs will take some work, but the Ravens still have a shot.
Ravens must win division to reach postseason
There’s no Wild Card path for the Ravens. They will have to find a way to get past the Steelers to reach the playoffs. The good news is they have another game with Pittsburgh. The bad news is they are one game behind.
Their postseason chances land in the 21% range, according to FTN Fantasy. The Steelers ride with a 75% shot of winning the division.
Ravens head coach John Harbaugh said he still believes in his team, even though it has struggled much of the season, according to baltimoreravens.com.
“Four games left. The season is not over,” Harbaugh said. “Fighting for the AFC North for the next four games. That's where we stand.”
If the Ravens win out, they will be the AFC North champions. They could also win three of the four games and make it, but they would need help. The Ravens can even get in at 8-9.
“If the Ravens beat the Bengals and Steelers but lose both games against the Packers and Patriots, the Steelers would need to lose two of those other three games,” Ryan Mink wrote. “The Dolphins have won four straight following their loss to the Ravens and could be a spoiler down the stretch. The Lions are coming off an impressive 44-30 win over the Dallas Cowboys.”
And believe it or not, they could make it at 7-10. But the Steelers would have to go 0-4, and the Bengals would need to lose two of three games against the Dolphins, Cardinals, and Browns.
ESPN likes Ravens’ chances better
This model plugs the Ravens into the playoffs with a 30% chance. As for the starting point, the Ravens really need to get back on track against the Bengals, according to ESPN.
“If the Ravens lose to the Bengals in Week 15, their playoff chances fall to 14% (would rise to 48% with a win),” ESPN Research wrote. “Winning the division is Baltimore's only viable way to the playoffs this season. Their playoff chances are the same as their division chances.”
It probably comes down to the way Lamar Jackson plays this week.
“Jackson is looking to break out of a four-game rut, during which he has thrown one touchdown and four interceptions,” Jamison Hensley wrote. “But he is 4-0 in his career at Cincinnati, throwing 15 touchdowns and one interception. “I always have so much respect for [Jackson] and the way he plays, the way he fights and competes and everything else out there,” Harbaugh said. “When the game starts, and the lights come on, there's nobody you'd rather have.”
According to ESPN research, Jackson's five straight games without multiple passing touchdowns is the longest such streak as a starter in his career.
The Athletic model pegs Ravens at 27%
Maybe all of the playoff odds need to be tied to Jackson. If he rediscovers his 2024 self at any point, the Ravens could go on a heater. He’s certainly trying, according to ESPN.
“I feel like each and every week there's no room for error,” Jackson said. “We are professionals. Now, I feel like we are just trying to win as much as we can right now. We've just been talking about the four-game stretch. You just have to lock in and put it all on the line.”
But still, Jackson is hurting, Harbaugh said.
“If it's not the best thing to practice because you want to get your body right, I think you have to respect that as a coach,” Harbaugh said. “I know you have to respect that as a coach, so I respect Lamar and his judgment.
“I always have so much respect for him and the way he plays, the way he fights and competes and everything else out there,” Harbaugh said. “When the game starts, and the lights come on, there's nobody you'd rather have.”
After the Bengals, the Ravens play host to the Patriots before traveling to take on the Packers and the Steelers. Yes, that's a rough road. But if the Ravens navigate it successfully, it likely means they will be fully ready for postseason play.
