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We're back with another betting prediction and pick for UFC 315 as we reach the Co-Main Event of the night, a title bout in the Women's Flyweight (125) Division. Champion and UFC legend Valentina Shevchenko will defend her belt against No. 2 contender Manon Fiorot of France. Check the UFC odds series for our Shevchenko-Fiorot prediction and pick.
Valentina Shevchenko (24-4-1) has gone 13-3-1 during her UFC tenure en route to becoming multiple-time champion. After losing her belt to Alexa Grasso and later fighting to a draw in the rematch, she regained her belt in a title run that dates back to 2018. Now she'll look to defend against the next upcoming challenger. Shevchenko stands 5-foot-5 with a 67-inch reach.
Manon Fiorot (12-1) comes in with a spotless 7-0 record in the UFC since 2021. She's blazed through the division with ease, most recently defeating former champ Rose Namajunas and Erin Blanchfield via unanimous decision leading up to this. She's the most worthy challenger and will look to exact her title hopes. Fiorot stands 5-foot-7 with a 65-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 315 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 315 Odds: Valentina Shevchenko-Manon Fiorot Odds
Valentina Shevchenko: +120
Manon Fiorot: -142
Over 4.5 rounds: -315
Under 4.5 rounds: +240
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Why Valentina Shevchenko Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Alexa Grasso – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-1-1
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
After losing her belt to Alexa Grasso in stunning upset fashion, Valentina Shevchenko once again proved why she's the greatest Women's Flyweight champion to ever step in the cage.
With all the hype around the new champion, Shevchenko managed to turn in a masterful game plan where she worked her wrestling more than in previous bouts, landing eight of 12 takedown attempts and vastly controlling the action on the ground.
While her striking is world-class, she'll be met with another striking savant as Fiorot throws more significant strikes at a slightly more accurate clip.
Still, Shevchenko is very diligent about moving her head off the center line, and she's bound to make adjustments throughout this fight. Don't be surprised if she takes another similar approach and looks to put Fiorot on her back for much of this bout.
Shevchenko's high kicks have always been an integral part of her game, and she can greatly benefit from threatening them early and keeping Fiorot at a safe distance. Look for her to tie up in the clinch as she looks for Judo throws and inside trips, giving her the slight advantage if she's able to grab ahold of her opponent.
Why Manon Fiorot Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Erin Blanchfield – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO
Manon Fiorot has made her path to the title look relatively easy as she hasn't faced much resistance up to this point. With two standing TKOs to begin her UFC tenure, her last five fights against increasingly difficult competition have all ended in unanimous decisions.
She's arguably the most technical striker in the division and has an extremely solid chin, making her very hard to stop or deter from moving forward.
Fiorot does a ton of her work with her front leg kicks and will throw side kicks to the body in order to create distance between opponents. She's also very fast with her boxing hands and will have a slight advantage over Shevchenko when it comes to hand speed and output. Look for her to firmly stand in the pocket as she combats the combinations of her opponent.
To win this fight, Fiorot has to be first in the striking exchanges without allowing Shevchenko to dictate the pace of this fight. She should expect the takedown attempts to come frequently, and her takedown defense rate is solid at 61%. Keeping this fight on the feet will be her greatest chance at holding the belt if she's able to out-strike one of the best in the sport.
Final Valentina Shevchenko-Manon Fiorot Prediction & Pick
This should be one of the highest-level striking matchups we've seen in Women's Flyweight history as both fighters are complete technicians when it comes to their stand-up game.
Manon Fiorot is a no-frills kickboxer and is very willing to take the center of the octagon while overwhelming opponents with her accuracy. However, Shevchenko has been in this spot many times, and she'll have the champion's advantage in knowing what it takes to win.
We have to give the striking advantage to Fiorot for how polished she's looked up to this point. However, the betting lines are slightly disrespectful to the champion as she continues to add new wrinkles to her game and find ways to win. Shevchenko is also a world-class grappler, and I expect her ground game to have a massive impact in this fight if she's able to find the takedowns.
Let's roll with Valentina Shevchenko to win this bout as it's not often we see the reigning champion the betting underdog.
Final Valentina Shevchenko-Manon Fiorot Prediction & Pick: Valentina Shevchenko (+120)
