Quarterback is often the position that gives fantasy football managers the most peace of mind. With so many viable starters across the NFL, it feels safe to draft an early-round passer or wait until the later rounds for upside plays. That depth is also deceptive, though. Unlike running backs or wide receivers, a quarterback can finish with decent numbers and still be a fantasy football liability if he doesn’t meet his draft cost. In 2025, a handful of big-name quarterbacks carry more risk than reward.
Preview of the 2025 NFL fantasy football season
The 2025 NFL season arrives with no shortage of intrigue. The reigning champion Philadelphia Eagles look poised to defend their crown behind Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers debut a bold new era with Aaron Rodgers and DK Metcalf. Elsewhere, the Kansas City Chiefs face questions after years of dominance, the Jacksonville Jaguars aim to rise with their explosive young offense and rookie sensation Travis Hunter, and the Baltimore Ravens enter what feels like a make-or-break campaign.
When it comes to fantasy football, quarterback busts can be trickier to spot than at other positions. The position is so deep that steady production alone won’t separate a fantasy football starter from the pack. Instead, busts often emerge when quarterbacks are overvalued, capped by their offensive environment, or due for regression. The goal isn’t to predict total collapse, but to identify the passers unlikely to deliver returns worthy of their draft slot.
Here are five quarterbacks who could cost fantasy football managers in 2025.
Jared Goff could regress without Ben Johnson
Jared Goff was one of the pleasant surprises of 2024. He finished inside the top tier of fantasy football quarterbacks. However, the warning signs of a regression are flashing. His career averages simply don’t match the gaudy totals he put up last season, and without offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, Goff may struggle to sustain top-10 production.
Yes, Goff has finished as a top-10 fantasy football quarterback in each of the last three years. That said, history shows that when quarterbacks lose elite coordinators, efficiency and consistency take a hit. Unless he quickly builds chemistry with a new play-caller, Goff’s ceiling could fall sharply. This could leave fantasy football players who draft him at his 2024 level of expectation sorely disappointed.
Justin Herbert’s red-zone woes limit upside
Justin Herbert should be the definition of a fantasy football star. He has a strong arm, weapons at his disposal, and youth on his side. Yet the numbers tell a different story. He ranked just 16th in fantasy football points per game last season. His lack of red-zone opportunities was glaring. Only 57 passes inside the 20-yard line, which was tied for 17th in the league, made his touchdown numbers plateau at 25.
That’s not enough when fantasy football managers are drafting him as a top-10 quarterback. Even worse, Herbert enters 2025 adjusting to yet another offensive system. Coaching turnover rarely helps consistency. With uncertainty around the Chargers’ supporting cast, Herbert feels like a risky investment. Unless his touchdown totals climb dramatically, his fantasy ceiling will once again lag behind his draft cost.
Patrick Mahomes isn’t worth his ADP
This one feels almost blasphemous, but fantasy football is about value, not reputation. Patrick Mahomes is still one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. However, he has now posted back-to-back fantasy seasons that, while solid, failed to match his early-career dominance. And yet, in 2025 drafts, he’s coming off many draft boards in the fifth round.
That’s simply too high when other capable quarterbacks like Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, or even upside plays such as Jayden Daniels are being drafted multiple rounds later. Unless Mahomes bounces back with a true MVP-level season, the opportunity cost of taking him early will sink many fantasy football squads. He might not ‘bust' in the sense of playing poorly, but relative to his ADP, Mahomes is more likely to disappoint than delight.
Baker Mayfield faces the regression monster
Baker Mayfield enjoyed a renaissance in 2024. He threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns while finishing fourth among quarterbacks in fantasy football points. It was easily his best season as a pro. That's strangely the problem. His production soared 90-plus points above his prior career best, a number that screams unsustainable.
Now, Tampa Bay enters 2025 with uncertainty. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen has moved on, while star receiver Chris Godwin’s availability is in question. Without that perfect storm of scheme and personnel, Mayfield is almost destined to slide back into mid-tier territory. Drafting him at his current ADP of 63 assumes lightning can strike twice. Fantasy managers banking on a repeat could instead end up with a frustrating regression candidate.
Bo Nix could hit a sophomore slump
Bo Nix quietly put together one of the best rookie quarterback seasons in recent memory. He piled up over 317 fantasy football points in 17 starts. For a Denver team in transition, Nix’s poise and consistency were impressive. However, sophomore quarterbacks often hit a wall, as defenses adjust and the pressure of expectations builds.
The Broncos’ offense remains unsettled, and while Nix has the talent to buck the trend, betting on a repeat of his 2024 success feels risky. With fantasy drafts slotting him among volatile mid-tier quarterbacks between the 7th and 20th rounds, the downside is real. A modest step back would make Nix a streaming option rather than a locked-in starter. That's a tough pill for managers who invest in him as a top-12 option.
Looking ahead
Fantasy football is as much about avoiding traps as it is about finding sleepers. In 2025, the quarterbacks listed above all carry significant red flags: coaching changes, regression risk, unsustainable production, or inflated draft prices. Sure, each could still deliver usable weeks. However, none is worth the risk at their current ADP.
If you want to build a winning fantasy roster this season, tread carefully with Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, and Bo Nix. Because sometimes the biggest names are the ones most likely to bust.
