Mike White and the Georgia Bulldogs travel to Starkville to take on Chris Jans’ Mississippi State Bulldogs in this important SEC matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Georgia-Mississippi State prediction and pick.

After starting 3-2 in SEC play, Mike White and Georgia have lost three straight and now find themselves back on the road. Despite the negative SEC record, the Bulldogs have held second-half leads in three of their five SEC losses. Whether it is Jabri Abdur-Rahim, RJ Melendez, or even one of the freshmen, Georgia has the offensive firepower–they just need to find consistency.

Right behind Georgia in the standings lies Chris Jans and his Mississippi State Bulldogs. At 3-6 in conference yet 42nd nationally per KenPom, Jans’ bunch may be in for another late-season surge. Freshman phenom Josh Hubbard has provided a perimeter spark around Tolu Smith the Bulldogs desperately needed. 

Can Mississippi State overcome the loss of two-year starter DJ Jeffries or will Georgia snap their losing skid?

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Georgia-Mississippi State Odds

Georgia: +6.5 (-102)

Moneyline: +240

Mississippi State: -6.5 (-120)

Moneyline: -300

Over: 146.5 (-110)

Under: 146.5 (-110)

How to Watch Georgia vs. Mississippi State 

Time: 9:00 pm ET/6:00 pm PT

TV: SECN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Georgia Will Cover The Spread/Win

Initially, Georgia should be in a position to dominate the free throw battle. Not only does Georgia get to the line at the third highest rate in the SEC (36.9%) but they also commit fouls at the second lowest rate (30.1%). Additionally, even if Georgia puts Mississippi State on the line they are shooting an SEC-worst 59.8%. Mississippi State is playing down multiple rotational guys which makes foul trouble deadly. 

With DJ Jeffries out, Mississippi State is going to need extended minutes out of Shawn Jones and Cam Matthews with Trey Fort day-to-day and Andrew Taylor no longer with the team. While this will not affect the Mississippi State offense too much, the depth defensively gets thinner. Matthews and Jones are worst on the team in fouls committed per 40 minutes with Matthews committing 4.8 and Jones 5.3. With Jeffries out, if either Matthews or Jones gets into foul trouble Mississippi State would be forced to play lineups they have not played all season. 

Also, Georgia has a critical piece needed when playing Mississippi State–frontcourt depth. At 7-0 275lb, senior Russel Tchewa has the physicality to match Tolu Smith and Jimmy Bell Jr. Behind Tchewa, 6-9 220 junior Jalen DeLoach and 6-10 215 senior Frank Anselem-Ibe are two veteran bigs that Mike White has full confidence in. 

Why Mississippi State Will Cover The Spread/Win

First, the injury to 6-7 senior DJ Jeffries is the main storyline for Mississippi State. Now a three-year starter, Jeffries owns his role as State’s primary perimeter defender. Replacing Jeffries for the most part will be 6-5 sophomore Shawn Jones. Jones is a viable replacement as he has played 48% of the minutes at the three over the past five games. State will lose some size, but Georgia may be one of the only teams where you can afford to lose size as they play small with Jabri Abdur-Rahim at the four. 

In SEC play, Georgia ranks dead last in two-point field goal percentage allowing teams to shoot 56.4% from inside. This plays right into Mississippi State’s offensive scheme as they get the highest percentage of their total points from two in the SEC (57.1%). With Jeffries out, the floor will be spaced more as Shawn Jones is shooting 36.8% from three compared to Jeffries’ 22.7% in SEC play. Shak Moore should have a little bit more space to get downhill and Tolu Smith might see fewer double teams. 

Lastly, Humphrey Coliseum has been a fortress in SEC play. The only home loss came to SEC leader Alabama in a game where Mississippi State missed four straight late-game free throws down by two. They beat Tennessee, Auburn, and Vanderbilt in their other three home games. Georgia’s defense has not traveled well lately allowing 207 total points in their past two road games. 

Final Georgia-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick

Both teams enter in similar spots coming off double-digit losses with a road game ahead on Saturday. With DJ Jeffries being out, the Mississippi State perimeter defense will take a hit but their offense should see more spacing. Mike White’s small ball offense should be able to penetrate the lane with their aggressive nature and persistence to get to the free throw line. 

Mississippi State’s best defender on the court will be Cam Matthews but he guards the four. This is important because Georgia plays Jabri Abdur-Rahim at the four as a catch-and-shoot stretch four. Georgia’s aggressive guard group of Justin Hill, Silas Demary, Noah Thomasson, and Blue Cain should be able to penetrate the Mississippi State defense off the dribble causing rotations and late close-outs. Give me the over in this one. 

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Final Georgia-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick: Over 146.5 (-110)