The Jacksonville Jaguars signed former Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis to a deal in NFL free agency with a three-year, $39 million contract. This gives Trevor Lawrence another much-needed weapon, but how good was this signing? Here are the grades for the Jaguars-Gabe Davis deal.
Jaguars sign WR2 Gabe Davis in NFL free agency
Gabe Davis was supposed to be the long-term answer for the Bills at WR2 opposite Stefon Diggs. However, after four seasons in Western New York, the team let him hit NFL free agency and ultimately walk to the Jaguars.
Buffalo started the offseason tens of millions over the NFL salary cap, so paying a second WR $13 million per year when Diggs is already making $24 million annually — the fifth-most in the league — was probably a non-starter no matter who or how good that player was.
The fact that the player was Davis probably made it a little easier for the Bills to walk away.
Through four NFL seasons, the 2020 fourth-round pick has 163 catches for 2,730 yards and 27 receiving touchdowns. That receiving yard total does not crack the top 25 in the league since 2020, per Statmuse. In fact, it leaves Davis over 750 yards short of No. 25 on that list, Davis’ new teammate, Christian Kirk.
Despite this fact, the Jaguars’ Gabe Davis contract makes him tied for the 24th-highest-paid WR (with fellow 2024 NFL free agency signee, the Atlanta Falcons Darnell Mooney) by annual average value (AAV) at $13 million.
Davis is still relatively young. He’ll turn 25 on April Fool’s Day. But heading into his fifth season, the wideout may have reached his potential.
Davis had nearly identical seasons in his first two years, going for 62 and 63 catches for 599 and 549 yards with seven and six touchdowns in 2020 and 2021, respectively.
Then came THAT game.
In the 2021 AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs, in a game that would come to be known as the 13-seconds game — arguably the most exciting game of the last decade — Davis went off. While the Bills couldn’t beat the Kansas City Chiefs, the then-second-year pro has eight catches for 201 yards and four touchdowns.
This made Bills Mafia excited for what could be. And while the next season wasn’t bad, Davis’ 48 catches for 836 yards and seven touchdowns (coupled with a few drops in big spots) made it seem like that may be his ceiling.
Last season, Davis regressed a bit, putting up 48 grabs for 746 yards and seven TDs in two more games than the year prior. Plus, a PCL sprain took him out for the team’s two playoff games in early 2024.
So, what makes Jaguars fans think that Davis will be better with Trevor Lawrence who, while an excellent young QB, hasn’t reached Josh Allen level yet?
Well, for one, there is his new role and more opportunity. After Day 1 of NFL free agency, Gabe Davis joins Kirk and Zay Jones as the team’s starting WR trio, with the possibility of Calvin Ridley coming back on a new deal as well.
As of now, that makes Davis the WR2 by a hair or, more likely, the co-WR1 with Kirk. Without a bona fide top dog like Diggs, Davis could see 100-plus targets in a season for the first time in his career. If he does and can combine that with improved consistency — which he’s struggled with in Buffalo — then the former UCF Knight could post his first 1,000-yard season.
All that said, if Ridley returns and Davis becomes a $13 million per year No. 3 option, that’s a lot for the Jaguars to pay for a WR3, who is likely the fourth or even fifth option on a team that featured tight end Evan Engram and running back Travis Etienne as its second- and fourth-leading pass-catchers in 2023.
The truth is, the Jaguars are never going to crack the upper crust of the AFC — with the Bills, Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, and Baltimore Ravens — if they don’t get some elite skill players around Lawrence. The talented young QB simply can't do it alone.
If Davis becomes that player, this deal is a home run. If he doesn’t, $13 million per year with $24 million guaranteed is a lot to pay for a middle-of-the-depth-chart option.
Overall, the Jaguars have the right idea, bringing in more skill players, and in NFL free agency this offseason, Davis was among the top options. Still, the money may have been better spent trying to execute a trade and give a huge new deal for the next unhappy WR who hits the market. This deal probably takes the Jaguars out of that chase, which does hurt their grade a bit.
GRADE: B-
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