After spending seven years as a ‘Golden Misfit' — and with a Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe Trophy under his belt — Jonathan Marchessault is off to Smashville after joining the Nashville Predators on a five-year, $27.5 million contract on July 1. The 33-year-old, who went undrafted but has carved out an excellent NHL career, will now join a Predators team that has been completely revamped this summer.
General manager Barry Trotz has not been playing around, locking up franchise goaltender Juuse Saros on a long-term deal before throwing money at Marchessault, along with Steven Stamkos and Brady Skjei, in free agency. The secondary scoring that Nashville sorely missed last season is now rectified, with two proven goal scorers in Marchessault and Stamkos ready to help this team in its quest to once again have success in the playoffs.
And along with a star core that already features Filip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly and Roman Josi, Trotz and the Predators front office is focused on helping this team win in the postseason — something that hasn't been done since the squad marched all the way to the Stanley Cup Final in 2017. It's been seven seasons without a series win, but Marchessault figures to be a big piece of the potential solution.
Still, there are some concerns with the deal, although Nashville undoubtedly secured one of the best players available on the free agent market in 2024. Let's break it down.
Jonathan Marchessault is coming off a career year, but is it sustainable?
“A Stanley Cup champion and Conn Smythe winner, Jonathan Marchessault immediately makes our team better in all aspects of the game, and we’re thrilled to welcome him to the Predators organization,” Trotz said shortly after the signing. “His track record as a goal-scoring forward is well established, and we feel his versatility and physicality makes him a good fit in our group that already includes players like Filip Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly. We’re looking forward to seeing his playoff experience benefit those around him on our roster.”
Marchessault's postseason pedigree will no doubt be a huge help for the Predators; he did score 13 goals in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs en route to MVP distinctions. The 42 tallies he posted in the regular-season won't hurt, either. But giving a player who is 33-years-old a five-year contract will always come with some risk.
It's not realistic to expect Marchessault to be scoring 40 goals a campaign throughout this contract. He has only done it once in his career, after all. And although the Frenchman does deserve term and a raise due to his outstanding play over the last few seasons, Trotz is paying a player who just had probably the best regular-season of his career.
That's likely not going to happen again — scoring 40 goals in the NHL is not an easy task — and that's especially true considering the quality of his linemates heading into training camp.
Predators added some excellent talent, but they don't have Jack Eichel
Marchessault was an absolute threat on Jack Eichel's wing over the last few seasons, who himself was an incredible addition to the Golden Knights' roster when he came over from the Buffalo Sabres. The Predators simply don't have a center of Eichel's capabilities; Ryan O'Reilly had a solid season but is aging, and Tommy Novak is still young and looking to find his footing in the NHL.
Although Marchessault would look great with Stamkos on his other wing, considering how good the trio of O'Reilly, Forsberg and Gustav Nyquist were in 2023-24, it makes sense that that line would stay together at least for the beginning of the campaign. That means that Marchessault will likely be lining up next to Novak and Stamkos, which is a bit of a downgrade from Eichel and Ivan Barbashev in Las Vegas.
“Consider Marchessault in the same vein as Steven Stamkos (that other veteran forward the Predators signed Monday) — he's a 33-year-old skater who just happens to be playing some of the best hockey of his career,” wrote ESPN's Kristen Shilton after the deal broke.
“Marchessault put up 42 goals last season for Vegas and has been a consistent contributor to the Golden Knights attack throughout his 30s. That's the same type of role Nashville will slide Marchessault into, using him as a first- and second-line scorer. If Marchessault's defensive game can match what he's still capable of offensively, he should be a key part of the Predators' attack. It's clear Nashville wants to load up on players with experience who can take on a number of roles — from even strength to special teams — and Marchessault provides that same versatility Nashville was eyeing with Stamkos.”
Unquestionably, Stamkos and Marchessault make Nashville a much better team, and with an already strong defensive core, this squad could be scary. But there is certainly a chance that both of the veterans regress in 2024-25. Marchessault will be worth $5.5 million next season, of that there is little doubt. But in three, maybe four years? That's where this contract could become problematic for the Predators.
Marchessault is a huge get for Predators, but the deal may not age well
Only time will tell if Marchessault is worth the $27.5 million the Predators will be paying him over the next five years. But if the team can finally break through in the playoffs — something that hasn't happened in over half a decade — it probably won't matter. That's especially true if he can help Nashville finally win a Stanley Cup.
But, there is risk, and this is far from a perfect deal. Five years is just a lot of term for a mid-30s player, and this is certainly a gamble. But risks must be taken to create champions, and this one has a great chance to pay off. Shilton summed up the contract well:
“Nashville is trying to win now. It has a solid young core of players and GM Barry Trotz has filled in the gaps with strong veteran leaders. Marchessault comes with championship pedigree from Vegas. From Ryan O'Reilly to Stamkos and now Marchessault, that's invaluable experience for Trotz to be padding his locker room with. If the first two to three seasons with Marchessault can be on par with what he accomplished in 2023-24, though, and if he makes an impact for Nashville at the most important time of year, then investing a little more up front might not end up looking so bad for the Predators.”
It's going to be very interesting to see how well Nashville fares in the Central Division after their summer influx of talent. And with star power at all three positions along with a couple of Stanley Cup champions joining the fray, this is a team that no one should want to see in Round 1 come 2025.
Final Grade: B
Follow Us
Subscribe
