The Atlanta Hawks will visit the Miami Heat in the 2023 NBA Play-in Tournament Tuesday night. It's a familiar matchup for Trae Young and the Hawks, and one that hasn't gone their way of late. After Atlanta made the 2022 NBA playoffs by winning a pair of play-in tournament games, the Heat needed just five games to eliminate the Hawks from the first round. Miami went 3-1 against Atlanta in the regular season en route to winning this year's Southeastern Division title.
It will be an upset if the Hawks beat the Heat and earn the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference playoff bracket. Including the playoffs, the Hawks are 0-7 in Miami over the last two years. Atlanta went 41-41 in the regular season for the second spot in the play-in tournament
If the Hawks are going to beat the Heat, they're going to need at least one of their role players to step up in a big way. Of course, Atlanta must get strong offensive performances from Young and Dejounte Murray. Clint Capela's defense against Bam Adebayo will be an important matchup for the Hawks. Bogdan Bogdanovic's scoring off the bench is going to be key. What unsung player can be a difference-maker for the Hawks on both ends of the floor?
Let's take a look at Hawks' X-factor in the 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament against the Heat.
*Stats via ESPN
De'Andre Hunter: X-Factor Against Heat
Since being selected with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, De'Andre Hunter hasn't quite lived up to expectations. The small forward has missed a lot of time with injuries, including most of Atlanta's 2021 playoff run to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Hunter's 2022-2023 regular season was the best of his young career. Hunter set personal highs with 15.4 points per game and 67 games played. A knee injury forced Hunter to miss time down the stretch of the season. The 25-year-old returned for the final two games before the start of the play-in tournament.
Hunter was arguably Atlanta's best player in the team's first play-in tournament game last year. Young led the Hawks with 24 points, but he went 8-of-24 from the field. Hunter only needed 16 field-goal attempts to score 22 points in Atlanta's 132-103 win over the Charlotte Hornets. He helped to limit Hornets' leading scorer Miles Bridges to just 12 points.
Hunter's defense might be even more important than his offense when the Hawks visit the Heat. Although Hunter won't be guarding Jimmy Butler every possession, Atlanta's small forward will play a big role in keeping Miami's best player in check. Butler raises his game in the playoffs. It's why the Heat have reached the conference finals in two of the last three years. Butler played in three of Miami's wins over Atlanta during the 2022 playoffs. He averaged 34.0 points and shot 59% from the field in those victories.
In Miami's lone loss again Atlanta, Butler needed 20 shots to score 20 points. The Heat rank 25th in offense efficiency and can't match Atlanta if Butler struggles to score. There are times when Hunter looks like an All-Defense-caliber player. If that version of Hunter shows up in the play-in tournament, Miami's already below-average offense will be that much worse.
Amazing 1-on-1 defense by De'Andre Hunter on Jimmy Butler pic.twitter.com/yzF6wLNacu
— Davide Possagno (@DavePos5) January 15, 2022
As long as Hunter is efficient on offense, simply matching his season average can be good enough. Hunter scored 15 points on 6-of-10 shooting when the Hawks beat the Heat 121-113 on Jan. 16. It was Atlanta's only win over Miami in the regular season, and Butler didn't play.
Even if he doesn't dominate the stat sheet, Hunter could end up being the most important player in the Hawks' play-in tournament win over the Heat.
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