The AFC South is one of the closest divisions in the NFL. The Houston Texans currently lead the group, but the Indianapolis Colts are a close second. The Texans are on a bye week, so Week 10 turns into a must-win game for the Colts.
Luckily for Indianapolis, they face the junior varsity team that is the Miami Dolphins. Outlandish stats aren’t quite so outlandish against the Dolphins, so don’t be surprised if the Colts make some, or all of these, come true.
1. Marlon Mack rushes for 200 yards
The Colts are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL, and the Dolphins field one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. You do the math. Miami is allowing 150 yards on the ground per game, good for 31st in the NFL. The Colts, as a team, average 130 rushing yards per game.
These two stats combined give lead running back Marlon Mack a real chance at topping 200 yards rushing. Mack plays a healthy 60% of Indianapolis’s snaps, and takes nearly all of the rushing attempts. All of these factors combined with the dominant Colts offensive line set the stage for a huge day from Mack.
2. The defense forces five turnovers
This is a prediction that would be unthinkable if the Colts were playing anyone but the Dolphins. Miami currently has a -13 turnover differential, good for worst in the league. They also have a league-worst 17 giveaways. The Colts rank middle of the pack in takeaways, coming in at 19th in the league. Indianapolis also doesn’t have a player with more than one interception. All of this may make it seem like five turnovers is impossible for the Colts, but nothing is impossible when you’re playing the Dolphins.
3. Indianapolis wins by 30
Again, this would be near-impossible if the Dolphins were in any way capable. Miami has lost by margins of 49, 43, and 25. The Colts aren’t a high-powered offense, but with the ball-control offense, it would be a surprise if the Dolphins scored more than 10 points. Indianapolis has the privilege of facing the worst defense in the NFL, so points will be easy to come by no matter who starts at quarterback. You may be thinking that it’s hard to drop 40 points without your top receiver (TY Hilton is out with a calf injury), but a look at Miami’s secondary will convince you that the Colts will be just fine. Backup receiver Zack Pascal has played well in his limited action, and the tight end group is filled with solid weapons. This matchup will be over by the time the first quarter ends.