LaMelo Ball of the Charlotte Hornets seemed to be running away with the NBA Rookie of the Year Award prior to his wrist injury, but now the race seems a bit more open. Tyrese Haliburton of the Sacramento Kings is the next logical choice as a contender for the award. There are others who might wish to make a case, such as the Minnesota Timberwolves' Anthony Edwards, but for the majority of the season it has been LaMelo and Haliburton in the race.
The Two in the Race, a Kings-Hornets Duel
LaMelo Ball was the flashiest and most exciting of the rookies this year, but that did not stop him from providing real value. He was already making a case as one of the best playmakers in the league and his scoring package was well above expected value. He was averaging 15.9 points and 6.1 assists per game on 56.2% true shooting. He has been an elite rookie and he's shown how real is talent can be. What hurts LaMelo is purely the injury and the fact that he will likely miss the final 20 plus games of the season for the Charlotte Hornets.
Tyrese Haliburton, the former 11th overall pick, has proven himself to be a valuable player already this season. He's not an elite athlete or scorer, but he makes consistent impacts on the game with his intelligence and playmaking. He wreaks havoc in the passing lanes and he excels in transition. He always seems to make the right play and that gives him more value than the average rookie.
Defining the Rookie of the Year
Rookie of the Year is an award that is generally given to the rookie who puts up the best stats and shows the most promise with little thought given to wins added or advanced plus/minus stats. Kings fans, Hornets fans, and all other NBA fans know this.
Last year, Zion Williamson almost beat out Ja Morant for rookie of the year despite playing less than half of the games Morant did. This is because Williamson showed himself to be an absurdly special talent in limited time and many NBA Rookie of the Year voters value the high end production over consistency. Morant had done enough in his more time to make a stronger case for NBA Rookie of the Year. It will be interesting to see how this plays out this year between stars on the Kings and Hornets.
LaMelo has proven to be the more special and interesting prospect out of the two of these players, but Haliburton is sure to play more games. Haliburton has been very consistent, providing a spark off the bench for the Sacramento Kings and he consistently closes games.
LaMelo started the season off by coming off the bench, working his way into the Sixth Man of the Year conversation, before working himself into the starting lineup. These paths were similar enough prior to LaMelo's injury that award voters could compare the contexts of each player. In those similar contexts, LaMelo was the clearly superior talent, so Haliburton winning would be a clear vote for consistency and health over top-end excellence. It would also give the Kings a piece of hardware.
The Other Suitors
LaMelo Ball and Tyrese Haliburton are the clear front runners for the award this year, representing the Hornets and Kings, but there could be other contenders in the running before the season draws to a close. Anthony Edwards from the Minnesota Timberwolves, Patrick Williams from the Chicago Bulls, and Immanuel Quickley of the New York Knicks all have a shot to work their way into this race.
Anthony Edwards started off the season very slow, but has slowly become a very dynamic and explosive scorer. When Chris Finch took over the head coaching job in Minnesota, he really empowered Edwards as a cutter and scorer and it has worked wonders for him. He is still very inefficient (48.4% true shooting) and he struggles to impact the game consistently, but he's starting to figure out his physical advantages and beginning to turn that around for a Western Conference team which, like the Kings, is trying to find its footing.
Patrick Williams is not a box-score wonder, but he has been an important two-way piece for the Chicago Bulls this season. He is a much better defender than many expected and he has started to figure out and take advantage of his offensive game. He has a solid feeling for scoring in the mid-range and he's starting to gain more confidence as a player. He's not quite at the level where Haliburton is with the Kings, but he is close.
Immanuel Quickley was a late first round pick who had little expectations coming into the season, but he has become a smooth operator as a point guard in New York. Quickley is a very good shooter with a nice feel for floaters and how to operate a pick and roll. He has been a valuable piece for this Knicks team that is hoping to make a playoff run.
Conclusion: Who Will Really Win in Kings-Hornets Clash
Despite the injury and the expected missed time, LaMelo Ball should remain the betting favorite to win NBA Rookie of the Year. No one has quite matched his offensive output or his effect on winning this year. Tyrese Haliburton has been excellent for the Kings, but he has not come close to the impressive flashes of LaMelo and he's not near the prospect Ball is. The other contenders could make it close if they go on a special run to finish out the season, but that's an unlikely scenario and it is most likely that LaMelo Ball will be the NBA Rookie of the Year this season.
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