It is a Group D matchup at the 2024 Olympics for the Men’s Soccer tournament as Japan and Paraguay face off.  It is time to continue our 2024 Olympics Men’s Soccer odds series with a Japan-Paraguay prediction and pick.

While not one of the favorites to win a medal here at the Olympics, Japan is looking to contend. They have been to three Olympics including eight straight. In Tokyo, they finished fourth after falling in the third-place game to Mexico. They qualified after winning the 2024 Under -23 Asitan Cup just this past May.  They have also been solid in their warm-up for this event. Japan beat the USA squad 2-0 and then had a 1-1 draw with France. Meanwhile, Paraguay is fifth in odds to win the gold behind France, Argentina, Spain, and Morocco. This will be the first time they are at the Olympics since 2004. That year, they beat Japan in the group stage, and made it to the finals, falling to Argentina and taking the Silver medal.

Here are the 2024 Olympics Men’s Soccer odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

2024 Olympics Men’s Soccer Odds: Japan-Paraguay Odds

Japan: +110

Paraguay: +240

Draw: +250

Over 2.5 goals: +102

Under 2.5 goals: -137

How to Watch Japan vs. Paraguay

Time: 1:00 PM ET/ 10:00 AM PT

TV: Peacock

Stream: (Click Here for Free Trial)

Why Japan Will Win

The Japanese attack starts with Shota Fujio. He has played this year for Machida Zelvia of the Japanese J1 League. He has made 15 starts and has appeared in 19 games. In that time, he has nine goals and one assist, good for a total of ten points. He has been shooting a bunch in these games. So far, Fujio has 45 total shots with 17 on target. That is good for 2.84 shots and 1.07 on target per 90 minutes of play. This has been a major improvement in his game. In 2023, playing for the game team, but in the lower-level J2 league, he has just eight goals and 25 shots, with 14 on target in more time played.

Mao Hosoya will also be part of the offensive focus for Japan. He has scored seven times for the Japan Under-23 squad, and each time he has scored, Japan has won the game.  Hosoya has been playing for Kashiwa Reysol in the Japan J-1 League. He has started 18 matches, playing in 19 games. Hosoya has just two goals and three assists this year though. His shooting volume has been there though. He is averaging 3.18 shots per 90 minutes, with 1.04 on target. Still, he is down from his good pace from the year before in which he scored 14 times.

Leo Kukobo is expected to be in goal for Japan. He has not been paying much as of late but did make 16 appearances for Benfica B last season. He had nine saves in those games, but he did concede ten goals. Further, he also had a red card.

Why Paraguay Will Win

Julio Encisco will be a major focus of the Paraguay attack. The midfielder played for Brighton in the English Premier League. He played in 12 matches while making five starts. He had just two assists though, and did not have a goa, with an expected 1.4 goals for the season. Still, he did have shots, with 28 total shots and eight on target. That is 5.31 shots per 90 minutes of play and 1.52 shots on target for every 90 minutes of play. Further, he created 4.34 shots per 90 minutes for Brighton, while creating two goals.

Enso Gonzalez will also be another major player to contend with. Last year, he got the bulk of his playing time with the Wolverhampton Wanderers Premier League 2 team. He played in six games with four starts in that time. He did not score though. Still, Gonzalez has been good at creating chances and getting shots on target in his recent form.

Gatito Fernandez is expected to be in goal for Paraguay. He has not been playing much in club play in recent years. In 2024, he played in just three games for Botafogo of Brazil Serie A. He has faced nine shots on target, allowing four goals and making five saves. Still, he has shown to be a solid goaltender, with a career save percentage of 75.3 percent.

Final Japan-Paraguay Prediction & Pick

While Paraguay is the team expected to go further in this tournament, Japan has an attack that will be difficult to contend against. This should be a low-scoring game in this one, but Japan will be the team better equipped to create chances. Expect them to get at least one goal, and take the win in this game.

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Final Japan-Paraguay Prediction & Pick: Japan ML (+110)