It is an SEC showdown on Tuesday night as Kentucky visits Mississippi State. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Kentucky-Mississippi State prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Kentucky comes into the game sitting at 19-8 on the year, while also 9-5 in conference play, good for fifth in the SEC. They have won three of the last four games overall. The last time out was a huge win for Kentucky. They faced a 13th-ranked Alabama last time out, and they took the last with just under ten minutes left in the first half. From there, Kentucky took off and would win 117-95 over Alabama.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State comes into the game sitting at 19-8 on the year. They are 8-6 in conference play, which is good for seventh in the SEC. They come into the game-winner of five straight games. The winning streak started with a seven-point win over Georgia. They would then beat Missouri, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and LSU. This will also be the second time they have faced Kentucky this year. In the first meeting, Kentucky dominated. They took the lead early in the first half, and never gave it back, winning 90-77.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Kentucky-Mississippi State Odds
Kentucky: +2.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +130
Mississippi State: -2.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -154
Over: 157.5 (-105)
Under: 157.5 (-115)
How to Watch Kentucky vs. Mississippi State
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
TV: ESPN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Kencuky Will Cover The Spread/Win
Kentucky ranks 17th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are ranked eighth on offensive efficiency, but sit 77th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Kentucky is third in the nation in points per game this year. They are ninth in assists-to-turnover ratio while sitting ninth in effective field goal percentage. Antonio Reeves has led the way on offense. He has 19.9 points per game this year while shooting well. Reeves is shooting 50.0 percent from the field this year. He is one of five players scoring over ten points per game while shooting over 40 percent this year. The top shooting percentage belongs to Reed Sheppard. He is shooting 52.2 percent from the field while averaging 11.7 points per game. His 11.7 points per game is fifth on the team though.
The rebounding for Kentucky has been solid. They are 59th in the nation in rebounds per game, but they are 23rd in the nation in defensive rebounds per game. The Mitchell has been solid here. He is averaging 7.5 rebounds per game, while also scoring 12.0 points per game this year. Adou Thiero also has been solid, with 5.4 rebounds per game. He is also adding 7.9 points per game this year.
Kentucky has not been great on defense. They are 320th in points allowed per game, but they do get some defensive presence down low. Kentucky is second in the nation in blocks per game and 48th in steals per game. Ugonna Onyenso has been great on defense when in the lineup. He is averaging 2.9 blocks per game since returning to the lineup. Meanwhile, Tre Mitchell has 1.1 blocks per game this year.
Why Mississippi State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Mississippi State ranks 28th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are 74th in adjusted offense efficiency while sitting 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency on the year. They are 114th in the nation in points per game, while sitting 140th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. Tolu Smith has led the team on offense since coming back to the lineup. He comes in with 16.8 points per game this year, while he is shooting 59.7 percent this year. Josh Hubbard is second on the team in points per game, while coming in with 15.3 points per game this year. Further, Cameron Matthews comes in with 9.6 points per game while also shooting 63.7 percent this year.
Mississippi State is 23rd in the nation in rebounds per game this year while sitting 24th in offensive rebounding percentage and 98th in defensive rebounding percentage. Smith leads the way with 8.1 rebounds per this team. Further, he has three offensive rebounds per game this year. Cameron Matthews is second on the team with seven rebounds per game, while Jimmy Bell Jr. has 6.1 rebounds per game this year.
Mississippi is 52nd in the nation in opponent points per game, while sitting 23rd in opponent effective field goal percentage. Further, they are 40th in the nation in steals per game this year. Matthews has been great here, coming in with 2.1 steals per game this year. Further, Dashawn Davis comes in with 1.5 steals per game, while two other players come in with a steal per game this year.
Final Kentucky-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick
Kentucky has covered the spread in four of their last six games, including beating the spread by 19 or more points in three of the last six. Still, Mississippi has covered four of its last five. They have struggled when an underdog though, failing to cover in four of their last five as an underdog, including last time against Kentucky. While Kentucky dominated Alabama, Mississippi had a much stronger defense. Kentucky has the offensive weapons to overcome that and should win a close game.
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Final Kentucky-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick: Kentucky +2.5 (-105)
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