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Chicago Bears running back Khalil Herbert has all the making of a breakout fantasy football running back this season, as he's expected to assume the starting position after David Montgomery's departure to the Detroit Lions in free agency.
While the Bears did make additional moves at running back, Herbert should have enough juice to hold off free agent signing D'Onta Foreman and rookie Roschon Johnson, especially considering he's the incumbent back with familiarity in Chicago's system.
Herbert has everything you're looking for in a breakout back: increased opportunity, big play potential, prior high-level production, and a rising offense around him.
Khalil Herbert's Average Draft Position
Khalil Herbert is currently the 107th player on draft boards as the RB35, according to FantasyPros. Herbert finished as the RB43 in PPR leagues last season, so drafters aren't accounting for a big uptick in production despite Montgomery's departure.
Herbert averaged 5.7 yards per carry last year (compared to Montgomery's 4.0) and put up two huge games as the starter, averaging 117 rushing yards on nearly 20 carries.
The Bears have proven to be a run-heavy offense under Justin Fields, and Herbert has ranked as one of the league's most elusive rushers in each of his first two seasons. While his lack of receiving potential (23 catches in two seasons) leaves something to be desired, scrambling quarterbacks typically don't utilize their running backs for dump-off passes, and the Bears didn't go out and add any pass-catching specialists to keep Herbert off the field in obvious throwing situations.
The Bears may look to get Herbert more involved in the screen game as well, as he's proven to be a dangerous threat in the open field with the skills to make tacklers miss.
Khalil Herbert's fantasy football outlook and ADP would indicate that drafters believe either Foreman or Johnson (or perhaps both) will make this a true time-share backfield, and that Herbert's lack of proven receiving skills will cap his PPR ceiling.
Why you should buy Khalil Herbert's fantasy football breakout
It's always wise to buy players who have taken advantage of the opportunities they were given as backups (see: Tony Pollard) and ranked amongst the league's best in metrics like rushing EPA and elusive rating.
The only real gamble is the kind of opportunity Herbert will receive, but he sounds plenty confident that he'll be the starting running back this season. Foreman has never been a receiver (5 catches and 203 rushes last year for Carolina), and Johnson missed some time in training camp, which is never good for rookies who have to get up to speed quickly.
It seems unlikely that Herbert gets less work than he did last season entering his third year, especially given how productive he was with his touches last season. There should be wide-open running lanes for Herbert once again, as Fields demands so much defensive attention due to his ability to scramble.
Drafting the starting running back on a team with a dangerous scrambler at quarterback is a sneaky way to find RB2 production. In Michael Vick's prime with the Atlanta Falcons, Warrick Dunn rushed for over 1,100 yards in three straight seasons, breaking the 1,400 yard mark in 2005.
In Lamar Jackson's 2019 MVP season where he ran for over 1,000 yards, Mark Ingram cleared 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. When Kyler Murray ran for 819 yards in 2o2o, Kenyan Drake cleared 950 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.
If you expect Fields to keep racking up rushing yards, betting on Herbert to put up big numbers has plenty of historical precedents. Committee concerns tend to be overblown, and the draft capital is incredibly cheap. There are few rushers with true top-12 potential this late in drafts, and Herbert is absolutely one of them.
Khalil Herbert's 2023 fantasy outlook is solid with room for plenty of growth on an improving Bears squad. Betting on Chicago's offense to take a leap with Fields and Herbert both entering their third seasons is one of the sharpest ones you can make in fantasy football drafts this year.
