The New York Knicks are on a roll thus far in 2024. They are 5-0 since New Year’s Day with an impressive +102 net score across those games.

After a difficult start to the season, the 22-15 Knicks have benefited from a softer schedule of late, with wins against the Chicago Bulls, Washington Wizards, and Portland Trail Blazers. But they’ve also mixed in some impressive wins against the Philadelphia 76ers and best-in-the-West Minnesota Timberwolves. All in all, they look pretty darn good.

But the Eastern Conference standings are ripe with parity. As of Thursday morning, the Knicks are only 1.5 games behind the 76ers for the third seed, tied with Indiana for fourth,  a mere .5 games up on Cleveland, and only one game up Miami. Looking past the 76ers, that’s four teams within one game of each other, all fighting to avoid the unenviable 7th seed — and the play-in tournament. Let’s review the Knicks' chances of doing so, and have a look at Indiana, Cleveland, and Miami, too. 

New York’s  chances at avoiding the Play-In

Every team has its own hurdles to clear, and New York is no different. The thing is, the schedule is no longer among those hurdles. As of December 15th, the Knicks had the fifth-toughest remaining schedule.

But many of their challenging games have since been played — and they came out of it unscathed. Currently, the Knicks have the 19th-toughest schedule. And 26 of their remaining 45 games will be played at home, a welcomed fact considering: they’ve won 73% of all home games so far; and they’ve recently completed some grueling road trips including one that consisted of eight out of nine games — a stretch that lasted 20 days.

The Knicks' on-court production and chemistry are much improved following the OG Anunoby trade. But are the Knicks done making trades? Many experts believe there is one more move remaining. That move could represent the missing piece — or it can totally disrupt their chemistry.

But while the Knicks consider one last move, one thing they are probably not in the market for any longer is a backup center. It was announced on January 10 that Mitchell Robinson could return from ankle surgery later this season, before the playoffs. That could be a huge boost to a team that already looks much improved on defense.

Chances: Likely to avoid. The Knicks are healthy, playing better since the recent trade, and have more than enough home games to continue their winning ways.

Indiana’s chances at avoiding the Play-In

Indiana is tied with the Knicks at 22-15, and they technically hold the head-to-head tiebreaker against New York. They are set up pretty nicely, the proud owners of the 10th-easiest remaining schedule. That would be worth celebrating if not for the Tyrese Haliburton injury.

Haliburton suffered a hamstring injury after taking a nasty fall earlier this week. Now, two major things must break the Pacers’ way for them to avoid the play-in tournament — can Haliburton really return in just two weeks? And how do they perform in his absence?

Haliburton’s injury occurred on the night of January 8th. This means he’ll be out through January 22nd. Let’s assume he also misses the game on January 23rd. The Pacers play eight games between January 8th and 23rd, including last night’s win against Washington.

Indiana really needs Andrew Nembhard and TJ McConnell to step up. McConnell did most of the heavy lifting in Wednesday night’s win against San Antonio, but Newbhard has shown flashes this season, too.

But four of Indiana’s next seven games are against teams above .500, including two against Denver. How they perform across the next two weeks can make or break their season, at least as it relates to the play-in tournament.

Chances: Unlikely to avoid. Life with Haliburton will be tough.

Cleveland’s chances at avoiding the Play-In

Unlike Miami and Indiana, Cleveland didn’t play on Wednesday. Given the Pacers’ win, the Cavaliers dropped one spot in the standings to sixth in the Eastern Conference.

But sitting only a half-game back isn’t the end of the world, especially when it’s a win — which is very much in your control. The Cavs, winners of three straight, do have lots of Donovan Mitchell-related trade rumors to deal with — which can definitely serve as a distraction. Their team probably remains intact for the rest of this season, as it’s expected that Cleveland plays out this season before considering a major move. But rumors can hurt chemistry, too.

The Cavs haven’t had the best of luck this season yet regarding injuries and illnesses either. Mitchell has missed 9 games so far. Darius Garland has missed a whopping 16 of their 36 (fractured jaw on December 15). And Evan Mobley has missed 15 (knee surgery to remove loose bodies). Neither Garland nor Mobley is expected back before January 24. How will Cleveland fare without them? Only time will tell, but they’ve done pretty well so far. 

But wait — Cleveland has something positive going for itself. The Cavs play the seventh-easiest remaining schedule in the NBA. That’s something that must be capitalized on if Cleveland hopes to avoid the play-in tournament. Hopefully they are healthy enough to continue their winning ways, for their sake.

Chances: Likely to avoid. The Cavs have fared well without their stars so far this season, and Mitchell rumors haven’t seemed to distract them too much.

Miami’s chances at avoiding the Play-In

Miami is quietly putting together a nice season, too. Unfortunately for Miami and its fans, the Heat lost on Wednesday. Meaning they are a full game behind New York and Indiana — and a half game behind the sixth-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers.

But the Heat have some things going in their favor, too. They have the fifth-easiest remaining schedule in the league, the most fortuitous situation amongst teams mentioned here. That’s certainly appreciated by the Heat and its fans.

In addition, Miami can finally breathe a sigh of relief. All of their key contributors are finally healthy. Most importantly, Tyler Herro returned on December 18, and has flat out performed. He’s averaging 22.1 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game while shooting 41.4% on three-point attempts.

One thing that could throw a wrench in Miami’s success — which is the same problem potentially facing the Knicks — is their perpetual (and alleged) interested in adding a superstar.

Just like New York, Miami is allegedly interested in trading for Donovan Mitchell. And as much as Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and co. want to win a championship, it’s impossible to anticipate how a major addiction impacts chemistry.

But the Heat must also consider if they’re ready to enter the playoffs as constructed. That’s a dangerous approach, too, considering they lost in the 2023 NBA Finals and immediately saw a few major contributors sign elsewhere in the offseason.

Chances: Likely to avoid. Heat Culture should be enough to secure a top-six seed.

The margin for error is razor for all four teams competing to avoid the play-in tournament. And as mentioned above, no one wants to be in seventh place. All four teams have to continue winning games or risk dropping in the standings. And injuries and/or trades impact cohesion. So, as much as we can project who does and doesn’t avoid the play-in tournament, lots of variables can still impact the outcomes. Stay tuned.