The New York Knicks are inarguably a good team. They are currently 13-10, good for sixth place in the Eastern Conference, an important spot because with sixth place comes the luxury of circumventing the play-in tournament.
Looked at more deeply, the Knicks are the proud owners of the 10th-best net ranking in the league, meaning they have the 10th best disparity between points scored and allowed. But there is an alarming trend taking hold in New York. Simply put, the Knicks are losing to virtually all their good opponents.
Knicks struggle vs. winning teams
Thus far, 13 of the Knicks' 26 games have been against teams who are .500 or better as of December 15th– the Boston Celtics (three times), Cleveland Cavaliers (twice), Los Angeles Clippers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks (twice), Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, and Phoenix Suns.
On the one hand, the Knicks have played some seriously difficult competition with six games against the three best teams in the entire league. And their aforementioned net rating indicates that they are competitive in most games, as they still own a positive point differential.
Now the bad news. While the Knicks are 10-1 against teams below .500, they are an awful 3-9 against winning teams. That's problematic, but it's not the team’s fault. It's the product of sitting pat while top-tier teams in your conference improved. For example, while the Celtics and Bucks took serious strides last offseason, the Knicks made the decision to proceed with their existing roster. How could the Knicks expect to compete with them when they neglected to add anyone other than Donte DiVincenzo (no disrespect to DiVincenzo, but there is a huge gap between him and Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard)?
There is a silver lining, though. Looking past games against those top three teams (Boston, Milwaukee, and Minnesota Timberwolves), the Knicks are 3-3 against teams with a winning record, with an aggregate point differential of +16.
Looking ahead, the Knicks still have the fifth toughest schedule remaining (as of December 15), with games against Boston, Denver Nuggets, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers. Their remaining opponents presently have a combined winning percentage of .518, and 41 of New York's remaining 59 games are against teams with winning records.
A specific challenge for New York down the stretch will revolve around how often they'll play those elite teams. Specifically, the Knicks still have multiple match-ups against Boston and Milwaukee, respectively. In total, they will play Boston and Milwaukee five times each this season. Teams usually play in-conference foes a maximum of four times per season. So, the in-season tournament did the Knicks no favors this year.
In the immediate future, the Knicks will exclusively play teams with winning records until January 3, meaning 10 consecutive games against teams that are .500 or better.
The Knicks' next four games can be interpreted as a microcosm of their remaining schedule, with games against the Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers and Brooklyn Nets. Those teams have an aggregate record of 55-42, good for a .567 winning percentage — better than the average winning percentage of their remaining opponent, but not by much. How they fare in their next four games can reveal a lot about how they'll do down the stretch, and we'll probably know a lot more about the Knicks (at least as they’re presently constructed) in one week.
Ultimately when facing winning teams in their remaining 59 games, the Knicks have to hope that they play more like they have when facing the “other” winning teams thus far than they have when matched-up against the elite ones.
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