The 2023 Western Conference Finals between the No. 7 seed Los Angeles Lakers and No. 1 seed Denver Nuggets tips off Tuesday at Ball Arena.
The stakes, intrigue, and quality of play both teams are bringing into this bubble rematch are Mile High. The Nuggets have been the class of the West all season, while the Lakers have been on a tear since the All-Star break.
“We come in with the utmost respect for this team,” said LeBron James. “We look forward to the matchup.”
“They're playing amazing in these playoffs,” said Nikola Jokic. “Since (the trade) deadline, they're playing really well.”
Here's what to know before Game 1.
10. When there will be basketball
Every game will start at 5:30 p.m. PT and air on ESPN (except for Game 3, on ABC).
- Game 1: Tuesday, May 16 – Ball Arena
- Game 2: Thursday, May 18 – Ball Arena
- Game 3: Saturday, May 20 – Crypto.com Arena
- Game 4: Monday, May 22 – Crypto.com Arena
- Game 5: Wednesday, May 24 – Ball Arena
- Game 6: Friday, May 26 – Crypto.com Arena
- Game 7: Sunday, May 28 – Ball Arena
The series is on an every-other-day cadence like the Lakers' second-round bout with the Golden State Warriors. For weeks, the Lakers have stressed the importance of finding rest. They won't get much in this round, either.
Denver sent the Phoenix Suns fishing last Thursday. Los Angeles clinched on Friday.
The Lakers traveled to Denver on Sunday to get adjusted. LeBron acknowledged that altitude plays a “real” factor, especially early in games. He noted that it's easier to cope with during a playoff series because of the extended stay in town.
Neither team has lost at home in the postseason. The Nuggets may have the best home-court advantage in the league.
9. Historical context
The Lakers have made the final four in 41 of their 75 seasons. The franchise is tied with the Boston Celtics — a likely Finals opponent, a scenario Adam Silver might enjoy — for most championships in NBA history (17).
The Nuggets have never reached the NBA Finals. This is their fifth conference finals appearance.
Los Angeles won all six prior postseason matchups between the clubs — most recently in the bubble in 2020, when the Lakers triumphed in five games.
A couple of classic LA-DEN playoff moments:
Jokic, LeBron, AD, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. are the only holdover rotation players from 2020. (Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley were on the Nuggets at the time, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was on the Lakers. Vlatko Čančar is still with Denver.)
The Lakers now use Davis exclusively at center and utilize more shot creators around him and LeBron. The Nuggets are deeper and sturdier defensively around Jokic and Murray.
“It’s hard to say because they’re a different team,” LeBron said when asked if there’s anything to glean from 2020. “We’re a different team.”
“We didn't play with this kind of Lakers (team),” said Jokic. “So this is going to be basically a new team for us. Probably everything is new, everything is different.”
LeBron said these Nuggets are drastically “better” than they were in 2020.
“Obviously, more experienced,” he said. “Every game, every postseason, every matchup allows you to continue to grow as a franchise, as a team, and they’ve done that.”
Jokic agreed.
“We have been there before,” Jokic said. “I think we are just experienced, playing a little bit more together.”
(Oh, and throw out the season series: All four matchups were injury-riddled and occurred before the trade deadline.)
The legacy implications for LeBron, AD, and Jokic are immense. A ring — and perhaps even just taking down LeBron and AD and making the Finals — would cement the Joker's status as a generational great. AD outdueling this version of Jokic and leading the Lakers to the Finals as the team's Number One Boy would be his most impressive accomplishment.
LeBron — 10-1 in conference finals — would move one step closer to achieving the most miraculous feat of his career (as “Last Dance” producers capture it all).
8. The odds
The Nuggets (-165) are the rightful favorite to win this series and are +230 to win it all, trailing only Boston, per FanDuel. They've been the top dog in the West all season and pretty much steamrolled the Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns.
The Lakers have been underdogs in each of the first two rounds, but they're 23-10 since March 1. They're the first No. 7 seed in the West Finals since 1987, and they're vying to become the first No. 7 seed to reach the NBA Finals.
LeBron and AD scoffed when asked if the Lakers feel like they're playing with “house money.” But, they did use the 0.3% chance the Lakers' analytics department gave them to make the playoffs at 2-10 as a rallying cry.
At this point, they don't view themselves as underdogs.
“We're trying to win every hand,” James insisted after closing out the Warriors.
“That's y'all expectation,” AD chimed in after LeBron's remarks. “Our expectations inside are way higher than showing up to the Western Conference finals.”
7. Offense vs. defense
The Lakers have been the stingiest defensive team in the playoffs: They have the best defensive rating (106.5) and have surrendered the lowest opponent field goal percentage (42.2%). Davis has been the most destructive and impactful defender.
The Nuggets boast the top offensive rating (118.7) in the playoffs. Jokic is averaging (double-checks notes) 30.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 9.7 assists while shooting 54.9% and 47.5% from 3.
“Nikola has just to me been a definition of greatness for a while now,” said Nuggets head coach Michael Malone. “The consistency in which he plays at, the level he plays at, is just something you marvel at sometimes.”
The premier defense vs. the premier offense for a ticket to the Finals. Doesn't get better — and more elemental — than that.
6. The Lakers' advantages over Golden State are no longer
The Lakers overwhelmed the Warriors with size, depth, and foul shooting — essential tenets of their post-trade deadline success.
That won't be the case against Denver. The Nuggets are (at least) just as large and athletic as the Lakers and might be the deepest team in basketball. Unlike the Dubs — who are abysmal at not fouling and earning free throws — the Nuggets rarely foul. They're seventh in the playoffs in free throw attempts per game.
Additionally, the Lakers rely on converting mistakes into transition buckets to support their shaky half-court offense. The Warriors are sloppy; the Nuggets, like the Lakers, are fairly responsible with the rock. On the flip side, Denver finished fifth in fast-break points per game in the regular season. Transition D is the Lakers' biggest weakness.
5. So, where do the Lakers have the edge?
The backcourt, possibly. Murray, KCP, Bruce Brown, and Christian Braun offer a sweet balance of speed, shooting, off-ball movement, and defense (besides Murray). They'll be tricky to monitor.
It'll be interesting to see if Ham starts with the three-guard lineup featuring Dennis Schroder, D'Angelo Russell, and Austin Reaves, as he successfully deployed in Game 6. Dennis/DLo/Austin lineups have a 14.3 net rating in the playoffs — the highest for any of the Lakers' high-usage three-man combos. Their ball handling, shooting, and speed can stretch out defenses. The Lakers need their guards (including Lonnie Walker IV) to challenge Jokic's movement.
Reaves and Russell have to look to score when Murray is on them. LeBron will seek him out in switches.
A few other … nuggets:
- The Lakers thrive when they get downhill and to the cup. The Nuggets struggle to protect the rim.
- Both squads are subpar from downtown and prefer to work inside the arc. The Nuggets excel at creating action in the midrange-ish area. The Lakers excel at defending that part of the floor. Porter Jr., KCP, Jokic, and Murray are all shooting around 40% from 3 in the playoffs.
- The Nuggets run a lot of dribble handoffs. The Lakers are superb at navigating those actions.
- The Lakers are 26-10 in playoff games in which AD and LeBron are fully available. So, that's an advantage.
4. Ham's rotation
Both squads are relatively healthy. Murray is questionable for Game 1 with an illness. Mo Bamba (ankle) is out for the Lakers. Other than that, everybody is a go. (LeBron is managing that torn foot tendon.)
Ham may prefer to start with Vanderbilt over Schroder. Vando's length and versatility will come in handy on Murray, Gordon, or Porter. Ham can always play the Schroder card later.
Ham hasn't tinkered with the rotation too much in the playoffs. LeBron, AD, DLo, Reaves, Hachimura, Vanderbilt, Schroder, and Walker are the top eight, at the moment. (Walker did a nice job defensively in Round 2.)
How the Lakers manage the non-AD minutes will be key. If it's normal rest — which should never occur when Jokic is still on the floor — the Lakers can continue eking by with a mix of LeBron, Rui, and Wenyen Gabriel at the 5. If Davis gets in foul trouble, the Lakers have no good options to combat Joker. Is LeBron up for it? I wasn't totally kidding when I predicted that the Tristan Thompson case could be broken in case of emergency.
3. Lakers' X-factor: DLo
If the Los Angeles backcourt makes the same or more impact than Denver's, this series will be a wrap. AD can wholly focus on Jokic, while LeBron can put the Lakers over the top.
For that to happen, the Lakers guards need to hang with Murray (25.7 PPG in the playoffs).
Russell (15.7 PPG) will often draw the lightest defensive assignment — though he'll be hunted and will need to hold his own on switches — so he should be able to provide a consistent scoring punch, especially if AD needs to conserve energy. The Nuggets will have Jokic drop in pick-and-roll and cede space to the lead ball handler. Pull-up jumpers will be there for the Lakers' guards. They all like that shot, especially DLo.
Russell's scoring has been streaky. At his best, he has the potential to go tit-for-tat with Murray. It's hard to imagine the Lakers losing a game if that happens.
2. LeBron's approach
LeBron insisted that he didn't pick his spots against the Warriors.
“I was dead tired after every one of them games,” he said.
And yet, Game 6 was LeBron's first 30-point playoff game since the 2020 Finals. His scoring, efficiency, and aggression have dipped since his foot injury. He's lingering off-ball more than ever, placing trust in his teammates to create (he still orchestrates from afar).
If AD is somewhat depleted by defense — and especially if the Lakers guards are underperforming — LeBron will have to find that Game 6 juice. It won't be easy, even if he's committed. The Nuggets have multiple bodies to throw at him: Gordon, MPJ, KCP, Brown, Braun, Jeff Green.
The Nuggets will use their size, athleticism, and length to deter him from the paint. They'll happily allow him to hoist triples (26% in the playoffs).
Defensively, I'd expect LeBron to match up with Gordon and let him take 3s. He'll help with Jokic and on the glass. LeBron is averaging 10 boards per game in the playoffs.
1. Jokic vs. AD
It's hard to imagine a heavyweight fight this enticing, considering the stage, the skill sets, and the fact that they'll be directly matched up for most of their time on the floor.
How the Lakers fare on Jokic is the most important variable of the series.
In the bubble, the Lakers had Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee to battle Joker as AD roamed. They “limited” him to 21.8 points (53.2% FG), 7.2 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game. Now, Davis is the lone feasible option, though the Lakers won't leave it all up to him.
“Everyone knows how great (Jokic) is,” said Ham. “We have to mix up pitches – AD will start on him, but we have a few different guys that will see action against him … We’ll do everything we can to do our work early and keep him off balance.”
The Warriors found success running high pick-and-rolls and drawing AD up to Curry, then exploiting the 4-on-3. Denver runs their PNRs a bit closer in, so Davis can sit back a bit. On the other hand, he'll be checking Jokic instead of Kevon Looney or Draymond Green. He'll have to worry about Jokic's floaters and passing off short rolls — and about thwarting Murray's drives. If Jokic pops out for 3, Davis will have to hustle to contest yet not bite on pump fakes. The Lakers will throw some doubles at Jokic, though that's a dangerous game to play with a 7-foot passing wizard.
Fortunately, the Lakers don't need Davis to score 25+ to win ballgames anymore. I'm exhausted just thinking about the task that lies ahead for him.
Davis can score against Jokic. Gordon (6’8, 250), who plays AD and LeBron tough, can switch onto AD when Vanderbilt is on the floor. Ham will be wary of that. Los Angeles has to make Jokic work on defense, via corner pin-downs, multiple-screen sets, and by having LeBron and their ball handlers go at him.
“You’re not gonna speed him up. You’re not gonna slow him down,” Ham said. “You just have to make sure you have a presence on him at all times.”
And if nothing works? Ham has a backup plan: “Try to catch him out of his house and kidnap him.”
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