The Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets begin the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday at Ball Arena.
As with the Miami Heat-Boston Celtics series, it'll be a rematch of the 2020 conference finals in the bubble. The Lakers won in five, although LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. are the only holdovers among rotation players.
“They’re a better team,” LeBron said Monday about the Nuggets' evolution. “Obviously, more experienced. Every game, every postseason, every matchup allows you to continue to grow as a franchise, as a team, and they’ve done that. We come in with the utmost respect for this team.”
These Nuggets are deeper with better defenders around Jokic and Murray. The Lakers' advantages over the Golden State Warriors — depth, size, free throw disparity — won't be so against Denver. Look for Los Angeles to exploit Denver's lack of rim protection.
The heavyweight fight between AD and the Joker is the main attraction. The Lakers have the best defense in the playoffs, largely thanks to Davis. The Nuggets have the best offense in the playoffs, largely thanks to the two-time MVP.
With that context in mind, here are three bold predictions for the Lakers in the 2023 Western Conference Finals.
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3. The Lakers will rely on the 3-guard lineup
Darvin Ham started Dennis Schroder in place of Jarred Vanderbilt in Game 6 vs. Golden State. It worked. The Lakers got off to a hot start as Schroder admirably chased around Stephen Curry and successfully annoyed the Dubs (he was ejected after riling up Draymond Green). In his postgame speech, Ham gave Dennis his flowers before anybody else.
The trusted point guard led the Lakers' rotation players in net rating and plus/minus in the second round. Lineups with him, D'Angelo Russell, and Austin Reaves effectively open up the floor and give the Lakers multiple paths to shot creation.
Schroder can pester Jamal Murray, a la Steph. His presence — in lieu of Vanderbilt — should force Nikola Jokic to guard Anthony Davis.
That said, Vanderbilt's length could be valuable against Murray, Porter, and Aaron Gordon. Ham loves Schroder's spark off the bench — he can always play that card later on.
2. Tristan Thompson will make a cameo for the Lakers
Don't laugh (too hard). In 2020, the Lakers had Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee to bang with Jokic while AD roamed around. So far, in the 2023 NBA Playoffs, the Lakers have been able to get by — though it hasn't been pretty — with LeBron, Rui Hachimura, and Wenyen Gabriel sharing center duties when Davis sits. (Mo Bamba remains unavailable due to an ankle injury.)
Those options won't work in this series, should Davis find himself in foul trouble — a scenario that would instantly constitute an emergency. (Ham should wholly avoid resting AD when Jokic is on the floor).
Thompson has played seven total minutes for the Lakers, all in garbage time. However, Ham and LeBron trust his big-game experience (so they say). If they need a few minutes of bulk, don't be shocked if Tristan gets a look. This would not be an ideal scenario for the Lakers.
1. Lakers in six
The Nuggets seemingly have the matchup advantage. Michael Malone is an excellent coach. They've been the best team in the West all year. They have the best player in the playoffs (so far). They've been building toward this for years. They are the rightful favorite in Vegas.
And yet.
The Lakers are 23-10 since March 1. LeBron has made 11 trips to the conference finals and has advanced 10 times. “Last Dance” producers are shadowing him. He enthusiastically believes in the locker room. He always wins the chess matches. He knows how to calibrate his energy, adapt his approach on the fly, and summon the necessary juice the moment opportunities knock.
Davis and Jokic — and their supporting casts — will more or less play to a standstill. LeBron will be the difference. In his 20th season, the 38-year-old will make his 11th NBA Finals. The Lakers will become the first No. 7 seed to make the Finals … where they'll meet the Boston Celtics.
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