The time has finally come and the UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Main Card is finally here. We’re ready to bring you a betting prediction and pick for the opening bout, taking place in the Welterweight (170) Division. Fan favorite Li Jingliang will take on a dangerous Brazilian newcomer in Carlos Prates. Check out our UFC odds series for our Li-Prates prediction and pick.
Li Jingliang (19-8) has gone 11-6 under the UFC since his debut back in 2014. He’s alternated wins and losses over his last six bouts and has had two cancellations plague his fight plans before booking this bout. He finally gets his wish of fighting on a massive Pay-Per-View card, so he’ll be looking to impress as the underdog in this fight. Li stands 6’0″ with a 71.5-inch reach.
Carlos Prates (19-6) has gone 2-0 this year in his first UFC action. Earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series, he opened with two wild knockouts over Trevin Giles and Charles Radtke, immediately propelling him to this stage. He’ll look for his ninth-consecutive knockout finish as he comes into this bout. Prates stands 6’1″ with a 78-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 305 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 305 Odds: Li Jingliang-Carlos Prates Odds
Li Jingliang: +295
Carlos Prates: -375
Over 2.5 rounds: +124
Under 2.5 rounds: -160
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Li Jingliang Will Win
Li Jingliang will finally return to action after having his last two fights cancelled due to differing reasons. One of those issues was a spine injury that kept him sidelined until now, returning to competition for the first time since 2022. It’s been a long-awaited return for the 10-year UFC veteran and he’ll be tasked with yet another hungry contender to overcome. He’s a very well-rounded fighter with an active kickboxing game. He mixes his strikes well and remains in constant movement, but he can work a bit on moving his head off the center line. Look for him to have slight wrestling advantage if he’s able to bring Prates down and work his top game.
It’ll be interesting to see what kind of shape Li will be upon his return, but he’s always been a consummate professional and comes ready to fight each time the UFC calls on him to do so. He’ll have to stay patient against the long reach of Prates as he tries to find his own striking range. Li Jingliang loves to find his jab and fight behind it the entire fight. If he can find a home in it here, it should open up the takedown opportunities where he can look to advance and be most successful.
Why Carlos Prates Will Win
At just three fights into his UFC career, Carlos Prates has already shown matchmakers why he’s a must-see in terms of striking and knockout potential. At 6’1″ with a 78-inch reach, he’s extremely long for this division and uses every bit of it to his advantage. He stands straight up in his stance like most traditional Muay Thai fighters do, but he does a great job of sliding in and out of range while tagging his opponents on the way out. His long limbs and leverage create deceptive power in his strikes and he’s already shown how dangerous he can be against UFC competition.
Though his first two wins were extremely impressive, this will be the toughest opponent of his career and he’ll have to do a ton of work in keeping this fight on the feet. His opponent is known for taking opponents down and keeping them there, and we haven’t seen much of Prates on his back or defending from there. Still, he has an 80% takedown defense rate and given the betting odds, he’s likely to keep this fight standing up as he lands the bigger shots.
Final Li Jingliang-Carlos Prates Prediction & Pick
This fight will be extremely interesting to watch as the veteran Li Jingliang finally returns to action to welcome Carlos Prates in just his third UFC appearance. Prates is proving to be the next dangerous contender in the Welterweight Division, but Li has other plans and is eager to get back into the win column after almost a two-year layoff.
Li Jingliang can have success in this fight as the underdog if he’s able to grapple with Prates and take him down into favorable positions. He’s known for this kind of style and as long as he can bypass the dangerous striking of Prates, he could be able to school the young prospect during this fight.
Prates, however, seems to be a serious problem in this division and he’s done a great job of keeping his fights on the feet thus far. He’s won his last eight consecutive fights by knockout and it’s only a matter of time before he finds the chin and shuts the lights off.
For our final prediction here, we’ll have to slightly side with Prates as the fresher, more dangerous fighter. We’re unsure how Li will look after the lengthy layoff and it’s always safer to bet on the more-active fighter, especially one with less tread on his tires. For added value, take his knockout prop as he looks to continue his current trend.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Li Jingliang-Carlos Prates Prediction & Pick: Carlos Prates (-375); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-160)
Follow Us
Subscribe