We're set to continue coverage of the UFC Vegas 100 Main Card as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Women's Strawweight (115) Division. No. 13-ranked Luana Pinheiro will face off against No. 14-ranked Gillian Robertson representing Canada. Check out our UFC odds series for our Pinheiro-Robertson prediction and pick.
Luana Pinheiro (11-3) has gone 3-2 since debuting in the UFC in 2021. After reeling off three-straight wins to begin her stint, she's dropped her last two fights to Amanda Ribas and Angela Hill via finish. She'll now look to rebound as the heavy underdog against another ranked contender. Pinheiro stands 5'2″ with a 62.5-inch reach.
Gillian Robertson (14-8) has gone 11-6 since her UFC debut back in 2017. She's gone on a tear dating back to 2021 and has won four of her last five fights. Three of those victories have come by way of finish and she notched a unanimous decision in her last fight. She'll look to take a significant leap in the rankings with a win here. Robertson stands 5'5″ with a 63-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 100 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 100 Odds: Luana Pinheiro-Gillian Robertson Odds
Luana Pinheiro: +310
Gillian Robertson: -395
Over 2.5 rounds: +120
Under 2.5 rounds: -154
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Why Luana Pinheiro Will Win
Luana Pinheiro opened her UFC stint very strong with a TKO win and two decisions under her belt. However, she's had trouble with tougher competition within the division and this upcoming bout will be a test to determine if she deserves to rank in the top-15. She's a very skilled kickboxer and will have the stern advantage over Robertson with her striking. While she's the sizable underdog, she has a clear path to victory if she can remain aggressive and keep this fight on the feet.
For her recent training videos, it looks as though Pinheiro is looking very fast and technical with her striking. She also looks very lean and in great shape, which is a positive given her recent propensity to gas out towards the end of fights. She'll need every bit of energy in fighting a cardio machine like Robertson, so expect to see an improved version of Pinheiro, specifically in the striking.
Why Gillian Robertson Will Win
Gillian Robertson is coming into this fight following another set of back-to-back wins and a most recent victory over Michelle Waterson-Gomez. She also notched a win in Karate Combat as she continues to venture into other competitions in order to improve her game. She'll need to be her best when it comes to the striking in facing Pinheiro, but Robertson knows this fight will be much easier if she's able to bring it to the ground and drag Pinheiro into her world.
Gillian Robertson is a beast on the ground and her clear path to victory will be dragging Pinheiro into her submission attempts. While Pinheiro has a solid 66% takedown defense rate, I expect Gillian Robertson to eventually tie her up and ride her back throughout this fight. It'll be interesting to see what improvements Robertson made to her striking, but this fight should end up on the ground where she's most comfortable as the betting favorite.
Final Luana Pinheiro-Gillian Robertson Prediction & Pick
We'll have another fun matchup on the UFC Vegas 100 Main Card and both ranked strawweights come into this one with differing styles. Luana Pinheiro will have her back against the wall with two losses heading into this one, but she's looking great in her camp and she'll have a noticeable advantage on the feet if she's able to work her offense.
Still, Gillian Robertson has faced better strikers than herself and she has a knack for negating their offense with her smothering pressure. She's very defensive when closing the distance and once she's able to latch on, it's hard to shake her from a grappling standpoint. She's the rightful favorite for that reason and getting the fight to the ground will be her clearest path to victory.
For our final prediction, we have to roll with Gillian Robertson to get this win. She's on the top of her game right now and her stock has been growing over the last few fights. With how confident she is in her grappling, expect Robertson to find a submission win in the later rounds of this one.
Final Luana Pinheiro-Gillian Robertson Prediction & Pick: Gillian Robertson (-395); OVER 2.5 Rounds (+120)
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