UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov is live from Abu Dhabi as fans are treated to yet another exciting fight card. We’ve got our betting prediction and pick ready for this next ranked matchup in the Women’s Strawweight (115) Division. No. 7-ranked Mackenzie Dern of Brazil will be meeting No. 10-ranked Loopy Godinez of Mexico for a crucial and competitive matchup within the division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Dern-Godinez prediction and pick.
Mackenzie Dern (13-5) has gone 8-5 since joining the UFC in 2018. After a quick and exciting rise through the rankings, the world champion jiu jitsu practitioner has suffered back-to-back losses for the first time and is now 1-3 in her last four bouts. After a tough loss to Amanda Lemos, she looks to defend her position against a hungry contender. Dern stands 5’4″ with a 63-inch reach.
Loopy Godinez (12-4) has gone 7-4 in her UFC stint since 2021. She’s avoided consecutive losses throughout her tenure and notched a four-fight winning streak to reach this point. She came up short in her last bout against Virna Jandiroba, so she’ll be eager to get back on track and leapfrog the rankings with a win here. Godinez stands 5’2″ with a 61-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Abu Dhabi Odds: Mackenzie Dern-Loopy Godinez Odds
Mackenzie Dern: -120
Loopy Godinez: +100
Over 2.5 rounds: -270
Under 2.5 rounds: +210
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Why Mackenzie Dern Will Win
It’s been a rough last two fights for Mackenzie Dern and much of it can be explained by poor matchups not in her favor against knockout punchers like Jessica Andrade and Amanda Lemos. She’ll have to get back onto her horse during this training camp as she’s looked hungry to get back into action following her last loss. Dern certainly displayed her courage and solid chin during that fight, which indicates she’ll be very hard to put away by Godinez, who has no knockouts on her record. With the developments we’ve seen to Mackenzie Dern’s striking, she could end up throwing the harder, more damaging shots throughout this one.
Since she won’t have to worry about Godinez knocking her out, Mackenzie Dern should focus on disrupting her opponent’s striking rhythm and finding the takedown where she’s at her best. Her experience in world jiu jitsu competitions puts her above most of the other fighters in the UFC and she’ll have the noticeable advantage in this one. Dern should look to get back to her roots, take this fight to the ground, and seek for the quick submission win.
Why Loopy Godinez Will Win
Loopy Godinez has all the potential to be the Strawweight Champion one day and her path would begin with a win over a huge talent and ranked contender like Mackenzie Dern. Godinez is a seasoned striker and fights with a beautiful, technical style. She’s very fundamental with her hands and throws combinations with great precision. She also fights with a Mexican-style boxing approach and continues to walk opponents down while dodging and absorbing punches herself. She’s not a knockout puncher by any means, but she finds her success through volume, consistency, and accuracy when on the feet.
Loopy Godinez will be intent on taking this fight to a decision, where she’s succeeded in nine of her pro wins. She’s never been submitted in her career and it’ll be interesting how she fares against her second dominant grappler in consecutive fights. Her 84% takedown defense rate will be the story of this fight as it’ll determine whether she controls this fight or not. She’ll be doing everything she can to keep this one on the feet and grind out a decision win on the scorecards.
Final Mackenzie Dern-Loopy Godinez Prediction & Pick
We’ve got another fun matchup atop this UFC Abu Dhabi Main Card as we’ll see two specialists battle for a top seed within the division. Mackenzie Dern is coming into this fight 1-3 in her last four and she’s got her back against the wall as the short betting favorite. Her main objective will be to get this fight to the ground and find one of her signature submissions.
Loopy Godinez, however, has never been submitted and she plans on dragging this fight into the third round. Her 84% takedown defense is a huge strength and she’s the much cleaner striker in terms of controlling distance and staying within a rhythm. If she can keep this fight standing and force Dern to box with her, she should get this win.
Still, I expect Mackenzie Dern’s grappling to be undeniable in this one as she finds an eventual submission victory. She’ll be fired up after her last loss and her striking has improved over the last few fights. If she’s able to close the distance and grab a hold of Godinez, she should win this fight as the favorite.
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Final Mackenzie Dern-Loopy Godinez Prediction & Pick: Mackenzie Dern (-120)
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