Tommy Paul takes on Carlos Alcaraz in the 2024 Olympics Tennis men's singles quarterfinals. Our 2024 Olympics Tennis odds series has our Paul Alcaraz prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Paul Alcaraz.
This is a rematch of the 2024 Wimbledon match between the two men. Tommy Paul won the first set and got a break lead early in the second. Alcaraz was not playing well, and Paul had a real chance to win. Then Paul let down his guard, played a bad service game, got broken, and let Alcaraz off the hook. Carlos got better as the match progressed. Paul could not match the level he displayed in the first set, and Alcaraz won in four sets, the last two being fairly comfortable.
This has not been an easy matchup for Alcaraz. He wins, but not comfortably, against Tommy Paul. He needed three tough sets to win in Cincinnati last year. Paul isn't a better player, but Paul is not intimidated the way some other players are by the four-time major champion. Let's see how the two players respond to Olympic pressure and to the fact that they met on grass just a few weeks ago.
Here are the Tommy Paul-Carlos Alcaraz 2024 Olympics Tennis odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2024 Olympics Tennis Odds: Tommy Paul-Carlos Alcaraz Odds
Game spread
Paul +4.5: +106
Alcaraz -4.5: -138
Money line
Paul: +400
Alcaraz: -610
To win first set
Paul: +280
Alcaraz: -370
Total Games In Match
Over 20.5: -118
Under 20.5: -112
Paul over 8.5 games: -110
Paul under 8.5 games: -120
Alcaraz over 12.5 games: -110
Alcaraz under 12.5 games: -120
How To Watch Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz
TV: CNBC / USA Network / E!
Stream: Peacock and NBCOlympics.com
Time: approx. 8:15 a.m. ET / 5:15 a.m. PT — could be 45 minutes earlier or later, depending on length of previous match
*Watch Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Tommy Paul Could Cover The Spread
The spread of 4.5 games gives Paul some margin for error in terms of covering the spread. There is no margin for error in terms of winning the match and advancing to the Olympic semifinals, but strictly in terms of cashing a game-spread ticket, Paul could lose both sets 6-4 or 7-5 and cover the spread. Given how well he has competed against Alcaraz, winning a set in multiple matches against the Spanish superstar, it's fairly reasonable to think Paul can stay within 4.5 games. If the spread was 3.5 games (or if you want to bet at that adjusted handicap), it's a different story. The difference between 3.5 and 4.5 games in this particular match feels significant.
Why Carlos Alcaraz Could Cover The Spread
Alcaraz has struggled against Tommy Paul in the past, but the Wimbledon match in which he lost a set, and the Cincinnati match in which he also lost a set to the American, were not on clay. This is Alcaraz's most natural surface. Alcaraz loves to use the drop shot, which has a universal application in tennis but is most naturally the product of clay-court tennis and the realization that on a slow surface, the ball sits up and can be manipulated to great effect, especially if the opponent is sitting well behind the baseline. Alcaraz is a natural on clay, and that might help him beat Paul more easily than in recent meetings.
Final Tommy Paul-Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Pick
This match is not clear-cut relative to the spread. Alcaraz winning two relatively tough sets seems like the right call, but that means the ultimate game spread is likely to be half a game off the number, which doesn't inspire confidence as a bettor. Want something safer? Maybe go over 20.5 total games in the match, if you think there will be at least one 7-5 or 7-6 set. Our official recommendation: Pass on this one.
Final Tommy Paul-Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Pick: Paul +4.5 games
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