The Sweet 16 is finally among us, and boy does the madness ever die down? As we approach the final week of March, sixteen teams will be fighting for the chance to be included within the illustrious Elite Eight down in the Alamo City. In this highly anticipated West Region clash between the defensive mastermind Arkansas Razorbacks and high-flying Gonzaga Bulldogs, something has to give on Thursday evening. Without further ado, let's jump right into the thick of the action with our March Madness odds series, where we will uncover our Arkansas-Gonzaga prediction and pick.
There is something about second halves and the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Down by ten points at halftime to the extremely athletic Memphis Tigers, the Bulldogs stormed back and relied on a masterful performance down the stretch by their best player in Drew Timme. Timme scored 21 of his 25 points in the second half, almost single handily bringing his team to life when they needed it the most. The moral of the lesson: never count out the Zags, or they'll make you pay when it's all said and done.
In their matchup versus twelve-seed New Mexico State, Arkansas showed true grit, even when their own shots weren't falling whatsoever in the final stages of a Dicky Vitale so-called diaper dandy! The 27-8 four-seed in the West Region had to scratch and claw their way to avoid being upset by the potent Aggies, but the Razorbacks were able to take care of business late in a grind out low-scoring affair 53-48. Despite the dreadful shooting performance by the Razorbacks, they have made it to the Sweet 16. Just survive and advance baby!
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Arkansas-Gonzaga March Madness odds:
March Madness Odds: Arkansas-Gonzaga Odds
Arkansas: +9.5 (-110)
Gonzaga: -9.5 (-110)
Over: 155 (-110)
Under: 155 (-110)
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Why Arkansas Could Cover the Spread
After shooting an abysmal 27.5% from the field including going 3-16 from downtown, Arkansas was lucky to escape the Round of 32. Fortunately, when the shots aren't falling on the offense, clamping down defensively is always the next best option. In this case, that's exactly what the Razorbacks had to do, as they smothered the Aggies' offensive onslaught let by Teddy “Buckets” Allen, who was held to 12 points on 5-16 shooting after exploding for 37 points in NMSU's first-round victory over UConn.
Arkansas has put on the straps on teams for the majority of the year, but if they want to avoid getting run out of the gym against a Gonzaga team that is averaging just under 88 PPG, then someone offensively is going to have to step up. Senior guard JD Notae has usually been up to the challenge, as he's dropped 18 and 17 points respectively in their two tournament wins despite shooting poorly from the field in both contests.
Other players that will need to step up in order for the Razorbacks to advance to the Elite Eight will be names like fellow guard Stanley Umude, who is averaging 12.0 PPG but is very capable of dropping 20+ like he did in the first round versus Vermont and even the SEC Tournament Final against Texas A&M. Their woeful offensive numbers are rather concerning, as they rank outside the top 300 teams in 3-point shooting. Regardless, Arkansas has to find a way to keep this game in the 60's to mid-70's, and if this is a plausible goal, then the Razorbacks will have a shot. The Razorbacks are 14-5-1 ATS in their previous 20 games.
Why Gonzaga Could Cover the Spread
Timme scored 21 of his 25 points in the second half, almost single handily bringing his team to life when they needed it the most. Gonzaga has looked far from one of the better teams in the tournament up to this point, but it's the overall resiliency that has been the most impressive part of the Bulldogs march to the Sweet 16. Unlike Arkansas, Gonzaga knows how to get the best out of their offensive possessions. The Zags have five players averaging double-digits in points, and are one of the more dependent squads in all of the country in offensive efficiency and tempo.
The Bulldogs will force the Razorbacks to play their best game defensively, as the Zags could cover the spread simply thanks to their balanced attack on both ends of the floor. The one stat that will be the biggest deciding factor in this Sweet 16 matchup will come down to field goal percentage on both sides. Arkansas has a 1-6 record when allowing teams to shoot higher than 46% from the field, while the Bulldogs have only shot lower than 46% four times throughout the entire 2021-2022 season. Despite this statistic, Gonzaga has struggled against the spread in their last four NCAA Tournament games, going 0-4 in such matchups.
Final Arkansas-Gonzaga Prediction & Pick
It's swarming defense versus prolific scoring! The Zags haven't played their best basketball in this tournament, but expect them to get off to a much faster start in this one. Arkansas' struggles on offense continue early on, and by the time this contest reaches the second half, the Bulldogs will have a rather comfortable lead. Gonzaga is heading to the Elite Eight!
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Final Arkansas-Gonzaga Prediction & Pick: Gonzaga -9.5 (-115)
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