Playing the second leg of a back-to-back, the Oklahoma City Thunder will visit the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center on Wednesday. This is the fifth meeting of this season series, with the Spurs currently leading 3-1 despite losing their most recent game against the Thunder 119-98. More recently, San Antonio defeated Orlando 112-103 at this venue, led by Victor Wembanyama's 25-point, four-steal, five-block display in the absence of Stephon Castle (questionable).
The Spurs have now won six straight when Wembanyama scores 20+ points. Meanwhile, the Thunder were also last in action against Orlando. They claimed a 128-92 victory at Paycom Center yesterday. That moved their record to 40-11 this season. With two of the West’s elite squads colliding, this matchup carries both playoff seeding implications and MVP narrative weight.
Thunder vs. Spurs betting odds
Thunder: -1.5, -108
Spurs: +1.5, -112
Over: 222.5, -108
Under: 222.5, -112
(All odds courtesy of DraftKings)
Thunder vs. Spurs key injuries
Thunder: G Jalen Williams (Hamstring), G Ajay Mitchell (Abdomen), G Nikola Topic (Groin), C Thomas Sorber (Knee)
Spurs: F Jeremy Sochan (Quadriceps), F Lindy Waters III (Knee), G Stephon Castle (Thigh)
Thunder vs. Spurs betting trends
The Thunder and Spurs have split their last 10 head-to-head games even at five wins apiece. OKC won their latest matchup, 119-98. San Antonio, however, went 3-0 against OKC before that defeat. Entering this game, the Thunder are the hotter team, having won three of their last four games, including a big one against the Nuggets. As for the Spurs, they enter this game a bit more uneven, having lost three of their last six games. Those losses included games against the Pelicans and Hornets.
Several betting trends do indicate that this matchup will be extremely close:
- 15 of the Spurs' last 16 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
- De'Aaron Fox has made two or more three-pointers in each of the Spurs' last seven games against Western Conference opponents.
- Devin Vassell has scored 15+ points in each of his last four home appearances against the Thunder.
- Stephon Castle has scored 20+ points in four of the Spurs' last five games against the Thunder.
2025 records:
Oklahoma City: 40-11 straight up, 25-26 ATS; San Antonio: 33-17 straight up, 26-23-1 ATS
Over/Under
Oklahoma City 26-25; San Antonio, 18-32
Keys to Thunder vs. Spurs matchup
Oklahoma City Thunder
Capitalize on the perimeter:
The Spurs have been effective at clogging the paint to slow down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. For OKC to win, they must capitalize on the open kick-out passes. Coming off a night where they hit 19 triples, players like Isaiah Joe and Luguentz Dort need to stay hot.
Manage the back-to-back fatigue:
Playing for the second time in 24 hours, the Thunder must rely on their depth. With Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell out, the bench unit led by Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace must provide high energy to prevent a late-game collapse.
Contain the Victor/De’Aaron duo:
De’Aaron Fox’s speed and Wembanyama’s gravity create a nightmare for most defenses. Alex Caruso and Dort will need to be disciplined at the point of attack to prevent Fox from getting into the heart of the defense.
San Antonio Spurs
Dominate the glass:
The Thunder rank 17th in rebounding, while the Spurs are 4th. Wembanyama and San Antonio’s frontcourt must exploit this disparity to create second-chance points and limit OKC to one-and-done possessions.
Attack the paint:
Sure, the Thunder have a top-tier defense. However, they are susceptible to size. If Castle plays, his ability to drive and distribute alongside Fox will be crucial in forcing Chet Holmgren into foul trouble.
Limit turnovers:
San Antonio has been prone to mistakes this season. Here, they face a Thunder team that ranks 3rd in steals and thrives on transition points. As such, the Spurs must prioritize ball security to avoid giving up easy buckets.
Thunder vs. Spurs prediction and pick
This matchup features the top two teams in the West. Yes, San Antonio has owned the season series so far. That said, the Thunder are playing some of their most balanced basketball of the year. Gilgeous-Alexander (31.8 PPG) is in peak MVP form. The return of Caruso also provides the defensive anchor needed to slow down the Fox-Wembanyama pick-and-roll.
Despite the back-to-back, the Thunder’s blowout win yesterday allowed their starters to rest early. Expect a tight, high-level contest that comes down to the final few possessions.
Final Score Prediction: Thunder 116, Spurs 113
Spread: Thunder -1.5
Over/Under: Over 222.5
