The Florida Atlantic Owls (34-3) face the Kansas State Wildcats (26-9) in the Elite Eight! Action tips off at 6:05 p.m. ET. Below we continue our March Madness odds series with an FAU-Kansas State prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Florida Atlantic took down No. 8 Memphis, No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson, and No. 4 Tennessee to reach the Elite Eight. For the season, the Owls covered 68% of their games while 50% went over the projected point total. Kansas State defeated No. 14 Montana State, No. 6 Kentucky, and No. 7 Michigan State to get to the Elite Eight. The Wildcats covered 69% of their games while 54% went over. This will be the first meeting of the last 25 years between the two programs. As far as common opponents are concerned, FAU defeated Florida by two while Kansas State took them down by 14.
Here are the FAU-Kansas State March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: FAU-Kansas State Odds
FAU: +1.5 (-110)
Kansas State: -1.5 (-110)
Over: 144.5 (-105)
Under: 144.5 (-115)
How To Watch FAU vs. Kansas State
TV: TBS
Stream: March Madness Live
Time: 6:00 p.m. ET/ 3:00 p.m. PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why FAU Could Cover The Spread
Florida Atlantic has been a darling among Mid-Major programs all season and they have climbed to No. 17 in KenPom. They are incredibly well-balanced, ranking in the top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. That holds up when looking at the raw statistics as well as the Owls average the 31st most points per game while allowing the 36th-fewest points per game. The Owls are dominant on the glass as well, ranking 24th nationally in rebound rate. Offensively, FAU can light it up from beyond the arc. Consequently, the Owls rank 12th in threes per game while shooting 37% from deep – the 45th-highest mark in Division-1. They are incredibly stingy on the defensive end where they allow the 16th-lowest field goal percentage.
If the Owls are going to cover as underdogs, they're going to need Johnell Davis to continue his hot play of late. The 6'4″ guard has led the team in scoring in each of the past two games, dropping 29 on Fairleigh Dickinson before scoring 15 against Tennessee. The Conference USA Sixth Player of the Year and First-Team All-Conference member is a dangerous outside shooter who averages 1.3 threes per game at a 38% clip. While he didn't shoot well against Tennessee, he still grinded out 10 trips to the free throw line.
The biggest X-factor for FAU is fellow First-Team All-Conference guard Alijah Martin. The 6'2″ sophomore has been solid thus far in the tournament but is still looking for a signature March moment. That being said, he's shown the ability to ball out in big games after he dropped 30 points in the Conference USA championship game. A high-volume three-point shooter, if Martin sees a few threes fall early it could be a long night for Kansas State.
Why Kansas State Could Cover The Spread
Kansas State may very well be America's team in this NCAA Tournament following their thrilling overtime win over Michigan State. The Wildcats feature a strong combination of offense and defense. They rank 35th in offensive efficiency thanks to averaging 76.2 PPG – 49th nationally. While the Wildcats rank just 142nd in points allowed, a deeper look at their numbers shows them as a strong defensive team. Consequently, the Wildcats rank 27th in defensive efficiency. Their biggest strength on offense is their ability to move the ball as Kansas State ranks seventh nationally with 17.1 APG.
If Kansas State is going to cover they are going to need more magic from star point guard Markquis Nowell. The 5'8″ senior has been dominant in this tournament, averaging 21.3 PPG and 14 APG. Nowell is coming off one of the greatest tournament games we have ever seen from a point guard when he broke the tournament assist record with 19 dimes against Michigan State. He looked to be in total control against the Spartans and solidified himself as one of the best players in the tournament. Playing in his home city of New York, expect the fearsome guard to put up another monster performance in the biggest game of his career.
Final FAU-Kansas State Prediction & Pick
This should be a highly competitive game with both teams coming off huge wins at Madison Square Garden. While the Owls didn't put up a ton of points in the Sweet 16, they still managed 62 points against the stingy Tennessee defense. Kansas State hasn't scored fewer than 75 in any tournament game thus far and therefore I'm all in on the over. Kansas State loves to play fast and the Owls will likely welcome that after a sluggish game against Tennessee.
Final FAU-Kansas State Prediction & Pick: Over 144.5 (-105)
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