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The North Carolina Tar Heels are set to face the Duke Blue Devils at the Final Four. Check out our March Madness odds series, which includes our North Carolina Duke prediction, odds, and pick.
It is the biggest North Carolina-Duke game ever played. That's not hyperbole, not when these two storied rivals have never previously met in the NCAA Tournament or the Final Four. It's really rather remarkable when you consider the March Madness odds: North Carolina is making its 21st appearance in the Final Four, Duke its 17th. Both schools are in the top three for all-time Final Four appearances, with UCLA second at 18. Yet, this is the first Final Four in which Duke and Carolina will play. It is only the second Final Four in which Duke and North Carolina both participated, the other one being 1991 in Indianapolis. North Carolina lost the first semifinal, and Duke won the second en route to Mike Krzyzewski's first national championship.
A total of 31 years have passed since that first title. Coach K — in a record 13th Final Four as a head coach — is preparing for his last weekend as a coach and the pursuit of a sixth national championship. The fact that he has to go through North Carolina to win one more title and write the perfect storybook ending is pure Hollywood, and a great storyline for anyone thinking about a North Carolina Duke prediction.
What will decide this game? First of all, Duke is playing much better defense than it did when it gave up 94 points to UNC on March 5 in Coach K's last home game as Duke coach and his last ACC regular-season game. Coach K vowed to fix what was wrong with his team since that game, and he has delivered. Duke will remember that game and try hard to write a different story here.
One of the other huge keys for Duke in its run to the Final Four has been the play of Jeremy Roach. Much like Remy Martin of Kansas, Roach has dramatically elevated his game in March, providing that extra piece the Blue Devils always needed. If Roach plays well here, Duke is the clear favorite.
North Carolina hasn't stopped playing well since that March 5 win in Cameron Indoor Stadium. The offense is humming, the defense is playing with intensity, and first-year head coach Hubert Davis has gotten this team to soar at the perfect time. If Brady Manek continues to hit 3-pointers and stretch the defense, Duke will have a hard time covering the whole court. This is a key X-and-O dimension of a North Carolina Duke pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the North Carolina-Duke odds:
March Madness Odds: North Carolina-Duke Odds
North Carolina: +4 (-110)
Duke: -4 (-110)
Over: 151 (-110)
Under: 151 (-110)
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Why North Carolina Could Cover the Spread
The Tar Heels are so locked in as a team. They are playing great basketball and will have total belief they can beat Duke a second time.
Why Duke Could Cover the Spread
The Blue Devils will badly want to avenge the March 5 loss, and they are now playing defense at a level which can achieve that goal. Both teams desperately want to win this game, but Duke will be even more motivated because of that loss four weeks ago.
Final North Carolina-Duke Prediction & Pick
In a game where emotions will run high, Duke — because of that March 5 loss — has more to prove. That's a good reason to lean toward the Blue Devils and Coach K.
Final North Carolina-Duke Pick: Duke -4 (-110)
