After Florida Atlantic's Cinderella run and Farleigh Dickinson's improbable win over Purdue in March Madness last year, much of the focus for this season's NCAA Tournament is on possible upset candidates.
Who can knock off top power conference teams and permanently etch their image into the minds of college basketball fans forever? Find out with our four First Round upset picks
James Madison
A great story ran on Fox Sports earlier this month about how no high-major team was willing to face James Madison during non-conference play. No one. Only Michigan State played the Dukes as a favor because Spartans head coach Tom Izzo is the uncle of JMU assistant Matt Bucklin.
The pre-season Sun Belt favorites beat their Big Ten foe on opening night and have not looked back since, amassing a 31-3 record and a Sun Belt Tournament title. The Dukes are a balanced team, falling in the top 56th in offensive efficiency and 79 in ADJO. Leading the charge is wing Terrence Edwards Jr. Edwards’ 17.4 PPG tied for the best in the Fun Belt as the conference player of the year also paced the league in free throw attempts.
At 14th in the nation in turnover margin and 36th in rebounding margin, few teams than JMU are better at maximizing possessions. With a matchup against a streaky Wisconsin team, James Madison has a strong chance to knock off another Big Ten foe in March Madness.
New Mexico
Is it even an upset if everyone is already expecting it to happen? Despite being an 11-seed, New Mexico is anywhere from a 1.5 to 2.5-point favorite against six-seed Clemson. The Lobos are 22nd in the NET and 23rd in KenPom (both better than Clemson) with five Quad I wins (equal to the Tigers) and a Mountain West Tournament Championship. Yet the selection committee confirmed UNM would not have been in the tournament if not for the MWC Title Game win over San Diego State
New Mexico comes into the NCAA Tournament on a four-game winning streak while Clemson lost three of its last four — including an ugly 21-point loss to Boston College in the Second Round of the ACC Tournament.
McNeese State
Even though Gonzaga is probably overseeded, McNeese still will have a tough team winning its First Round game. Still, this Cowboys team led by Will Wade cannot be ignored.
Wade’s team prides itself on its chaotic defense that is sixth nationally in turnover rate, leading the Cowboys to be third nationally in turnover margin. But McNeese is no slouch on the other side of the ball, ranking fourth in the country in three-point percentage with four regulars shooting 39% or better from beyond the arc.
The star of the show is TCU transfer Shahada Wells. The do-everything guard has made himself an All-American candidate, averaging 17.8 PPG, 5.0 APG, 4.8 RPG, and 3.1 SPG. With a playmaking defense and explosive offense, McNeese is a team to watch out for during March Madness and is a potential Sweet 16 candidate.
Oregon
An auto-bid power conference team as an 11-seed is never a fun sight for any team sitting on the six-line — especially when that team is Oregon. No top-75 team had more rotation players miss games than Oregon, and it was not even close. While the Ducks are far from healthy, they have finally found their groove. The Ducks earned impressive wins over tournament teams Arizona and Colorado to take home the Pac-12 title.
Despite a strong 26-7 record, South Carolina's metrics are only slightly better than those of Oregon, and most predictions give Oregon a 50-50 shot against South Carolina.
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