The time has finally come for UFC Vegas 95 to reach its Apex as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for the headlining bout, taking place in the Heavyweight Division. Ranked monsters will meet as No. 8-ranked Marcin Tybura of Poland will take on No. 9 Serghei Spivac of Moldova. Check out our UFC odds series for our Tybura-Spivac prediction and pick.
Marcin Tybura (25-8) has gone 12-7 throughout his UFC career since 2016. The former M-1 Global Champion has been on a slow rise to get to this point, but he’s won three of his last four fights with his only loss coming to Tom Aspinall. Following his dominant finish over Tai Tuivasa in the first round, he’ll look to add another victim to his resume. Tybura stands 6’3″ with a 78-inch reach.
Serghei Spivac (16-4) has gone 7-4 through his UFC career up to this point. He responded to a shaky start in his UFC stint and has now gone 3-1 during his last four fights with wins over Greg Hardy, Augusto Sakai, and Derrick Lewis. Following his last loss to Ciryl Gane, he’ll be looking to rebound with a win as the betting favorite here. Spivac stands 6’3″ with a 78-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 95 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 95 Odds: Marcin Tybura-Serghei Spivac Odds
Marcin Tybura: +140
Serghei Spivac: -166
Over 3.5 rounds: -110
Under 3.5 rounds: -116
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Why Marcin Tybura Will Win
Marcin Tybura has been a mainstay in this Heavyweight Division and his competitors have been overlooking him for quite some time now. He’s a former World Champion in kickboxing and for someone his size, he’s certainly capable of throwing some high legs kicks and showing off his quick hands. Over his last four fights, he’s had success moving against slower fighters like Blagoy Ivanov and Alexandr Romanov. He was counted-out in his last fight against Tai Tuivasa and quickly proved there’s more to his game than just striking after notching the submission in the first round.
Marcin Tybura is very smart with his defense and he’s only been finished once since 2019. While he’s getting up there in age, everyone knows heavyweights have the longest careers and as long as his striking speed keeps up with him, he should be able to continue finding victories against other contenders. His 79% takedown defense will be paramount during this fight as Spivac is likely to try and bring him down. Don’t sleep on his ground game after his last submission as he’s very capable of reversing positions and taking the lead in this fight.
Why Serghei Spivac Will Win
Serghei Spivac is a problem for other heavyweights with how athletic he is with his wrestling. He also works behind a very effective jab and likes to establish his range before shooting for a takedown. He’s the much better grappler of the two fighters and he’ll undoubtedly be looking for the takedown in this one. From there, Spivac stays extremely heavy on the top and isn’t likely to allow his opponent back to their feet. If he’s able to be a dominant wrestler and find the takedowns here, we should see him thrive in this five-round environment.
Serghei Spivac struggled to get going in his first meeting against Tybura back in 2020, but he’s since reinvented his game and is a completely new fighter by his standards. He’s much more willing to stand and strike against opponents, coupled with the fact that his distance control has gotten much better since. It’ll be interesting to see if he can land the takedown against Tybura this time around, but expect him to have a very clinical game plan as he works towards control time and a possible submission.
Final Marcin Tybura-Serghei Spivac Prediction & Pick
This will be an exciting rematch between two skilled heavyweights and it’ll be interesting to see how much they’ve each grown over the last four years. It’s safe to say Serghei Spivac has made the more drastic improvements since their last meeting, but Marcin Tybura continues to prove himself as the ultimate gatekeeper of this Heavyweight Division.
Marcin Tybura can win this matchup again if he can keep the fight on the feet and frustrate Spivac with his striking at distance. Tybura is very smart when it comes to point-fighting and he’s been in these five-round situations before. Look for him to employ his same striking tactics as Spivac has trouble closing the distance and reaching his chin.
However, I think this fight will mean something for Serghei Spivac and he’ll be working extremely hard to land the takedowns. His striking has improved greatly since their last meeting and I expect him to be much more comfortable in moving around Tybura’s jab throughout this fight. Let’s roll with Serghei Spivac to find a close decision win as both fighters give their all for five rounds.
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Final Marcin Tybura-Serghei Spivac Prediction & Pick: Serghei Spivac (-172)
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