The Miami Marlins are on the road to take on the New York Mets for the final time this season. This game will continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Mets prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
The Marlins are one game back from the Chicago Cubs in the Wild Card race. They have won six of their last 10 games, including their last two. They are losing the season series with the Mets 7-3 this season. In those 10 games, the Marlins are batting .231 with nine home runs, and just 28 runs scored. Luis Arraez leads the team with 16 hits in the season series while Jazz Chisholm has the most home runs with two. Arraez and Chisholm have each scored four runs in the series. On the mound, the Marlins have a 4.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 8.3 K/9 against the Mets this season. However, only one of their 10 starts have been quality.
The Mets have lost four games in a row, and seven of their last 10 games. In the season series with the Marlins, the Mets are batting .240 with 13 home runs, and 46 runs scored. Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso have combined for 18 hits, 14 runs scored, four home runs, and 15 RBI against the Mets this season. On the mound, the Mets have a 2.74 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9. Five of the 10 starts against the Marlins have been quality.
Braxton Garrett will take the mound for the Marlins in this game. Joey Lucchesi will take the ball for the Mets.
Here are the Marlins-Mets MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Mets Odds
Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+134)
New York Mets: +1.5 (-162)
Over: 7.5 (-118)
Under: 7.5 (-104)
How To Watch Marlins vs. Mets
TV: Bally Sports Florida, SportsNet New York
Stream: MLB TV subscription
Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
Garrett has been very good for the Marlins, and he has been even better lately. In three starts this September, Garrett has thrown 15 2/3 innings, allowed just 12 hits, struck out 18, and he has a 0.57 ERA. Garrett has been lights out this month, and one of those starts came against the Mets. In total, Garrett has a 2.67 ERA against the Mets. He has pitched very well this month, and against the Mets this season. If he can continue that, the Marlins will cover the spread.
Garrett has been better while pitching on the road this season. On the road, Garrett has a 2.52 ERA, 6-2 record, .225 oBA, and opponents hit for much less power off him. The Mets like to rely on the long ball, and that could hurt them in this game. As long as he keeps the ball in the yard, Garrett will cover the spread.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
Lucchesi is having a great season for the Mets. He has a 2.88 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and opponents are batting .245 off him. His last start came against the Marlins. In that start, Lucchesi went 5 2/3 innings allowed two runs on six hits, and struck out five. The Mets lost that game 4-3, but Lucchesi pitched well enough to give the Mets the win. It will come down to him in this game, as well. He needs to shut the Marlins down because the Mets have a tough matchup offensively. If Lucchesi can have a good game, the Mets will cover the spread.
Final Marlins-Mets Prediction & Pick
The Marlins are the favorites in this game, and that does worry me a little bit. However Garrett is just one of the better pitchers in the game right now. For that reason, I am going to take the Marlins to cover the spread.
Final Marlins-Mets Prediction & Pick: Marlins -1.5 (+134), Under 7.5 (-104)
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