Jesus Luzardo leads the Miami Marlins into an NL East showdown as they visit the New York Mets. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Mets prediction and pick.
Marlins-Mets Projected Starters
Jesus Luzardo vs. Tylor Megill
Name (2-5) with a 5.30 ERA and a .125 WHIP
Last Start: Last time out was a struggle for Luzardo. He went 4.1 innings, giving up nine hits and two walks. Nine runs would be scored on Luzardo as he took the loss to the Rays.
2024 Road Splits: Luzardo has struggled on the road this year. He has made three starts this year, going 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA. Further, opponents have a .277 batting average against Luzardo
Name (1-2) with a 3.00 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP.
Last Start: Last time out, Megill went fiving innings, giving up five runs, just four earned. Megill also gave up seven hits and three walks to the Nationals but took the win in the game.
2024 Home Splits: Megill has made two starts at home this year going 11 total innings, but giving up just one earned run. Further, opponents are hitting just .162 against Megill at home this year.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Mets Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-176)
Moneyline: +120
New York Mets: -1.5 (+146)
Moneyline: -142
Over: 7.5 (-110)
Under: 7.5 (-110)
How to Watch Marlins vs. Mets
Time: 7:10 PM ET/ 4:10 PM PT
TV: BSFL/SNY
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Marlins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Marlins are 29th in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 19th in batting average, 29th in on-base percentage, and 29th in slugging. The combination of Josh Bell, Jazz Chisholm, and Bryan De La Cruz leads the way. Bell is hitting .252 on the year, leading the team. He has seven home runs and 31 RBIS, plus 27 runs scored. Chisholm is tied with Bell for the team lead in RBIs. He is hitting .249 with nine home runs and 31 RBIs. He has also stolen 12 bases and scored 29 times. De La Cruz leads the team in home runs with 11 of them. He has 11 doubles as well while hitting .248. This has led him to 28 RBIS and 30 runs scored this year.
In the last week, Bell has continued to be great. He is hitting .350 in the last week with a double, a triple, and a home run, leading to three RBIS and three runs scored. De La Cruz has also been solid in the last week. He is hitting .238, but four of his five hits have been for extra bases. He has two doubles and two home runs, leading to three RBIS and three runs scored. Otto Lopez has also been solid in the last week. He is hitting .286 in the last week, with three RBIs.
Current Marlins have 30 career at-bats against Tylor Megill's lifetime. They have hit .267 against Megill but gotten on base at a .371 rate. Josh Bell is three for eight with a home run and two RBIs. Nick Fortes also has a good record against Megil. He is just one for three, with a walk, but the one hit is a two-run home run.
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mets are 17th in runs scored while sitting 15th in batting average, 12th in on-base percentage, and 14th in slugging percentage. Brandon Nimmo has been great this year. He is hitting .221 on the year but with a .346 on-base percentage. He has seven home runs and 11 doubles, leading to 32 RBIS and 32 runs scored. Meanwhile. Pete Alonso continues to slug well. He is hitting .240 on the year but with 16 doubles and 14 home runs this year. This has led to 32 RBIS and 37 runs scored. Rounding out the top bats on the year is Starling Marte. Marte is hitting .280 but has a .329 on-base percentage. He has six home runs and 26 RBIS. Further, Marte has stolen ten bases and scored 32 times.
Harrison Bader comes into this game hot. He is hitting just .214 in the last week, but has a double and a home run, leading to seven RBIS and two runs scored. Meanwhile, Mark Vientos has hit .333 over the last week He also has a home run four RBIS, and three runs scored. Starling Marte may have the hottest bat though. He is hitting .500 over the last week but played in just three of five games. Still, he has three RBIs and four runs scored.
Current members of the Mets have 102 career at-bats against Luzardo. They have hit .245 against Luzardo with three home runs and eight RBVIS. Jeff McNeil has been great against Luzardo. He has five hits in 12 at-bats with a RBI. Further, Brandon Nimmo has hit .333 against Luzardo with a double a home run, and three RBIs. He has also walked twice.
Final Marlins-Mets Prediction & Pick
While Jesus Luzardo has been solid at times this year, he can also give up a bunch of runs. Tylor Megill has also been much better at home this year. The Marlins will struggle to score, while the Mets will not. Take the Mets in this one.
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Final Marlins-Mets Prediction & Pick: Mets ML (-142)
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