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The Celtics host the Mavericks in the NBA Finals on Thursday in Game 1! This series has all of the makings of a great Finals. It is a matchup of dynamic duos with Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum going up against Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic. Let's continue our NBA odds series with a Mavericks-Celtics prediction and pick.
The Mavericks have done wonders with their dynamic duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The key will again be where the scoring comes from after those two. PJ Washington has been that third scorer, but they have also gotten great play from Dereck Lively II, Derrick Jones Jr., and Daniel Gafford. The Mavericks have rolled through the postseason thanks to their duo just one season after flaming out and not even making the playoffs. They have playmaking, athleticism, and the coaching with Jason Kidd to win the title, but they are playing a juggernaut of a team in the Celtics. They have the elements to win, and make it a close series.
The Celtics were the best team in the NBA all season. They have been dominant in the postseason too, winning every series by five games and then swept their final one. They have the depth and talent to compete with anyone. They can come at teams in waves with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White, but then Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday are also stars in their own right. The Celtics are the better team not just in this game, but the entire series. The difference for the Celtics is that they are just as great on offense as on defense. It is an NBA championship or bust for the Celtics, and it might make it even sweeter to go up against Kyrie Irving for that potential championship.
Here are the NBA Finals odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Finals Odds: Mavericks-Celtics Game 1 Odds
Dallas Mavericks: +6.5 (-114)
Moneyline: +205
Boston Celtics: -6.5 (-106)
Moneyline: -250
Over: 214.5 (-112)
Under: 214.5 (-108)
How to Watch Mavericks vs. Celtics NBA Finals Game 1
Time: 8:30 pm ET
TV: ABC
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Mavericks have been one of the best offensive teams in the NBA this season thanks to their dynamic duo. They were 7th in scoring offense at 117.9 points per game. They were also 11th in total field goal percentage and 13th in three-point percentage at 48.1% and 36.9% respectively. In the postseason, the Mavericks are averaging 107.9 points per game, 47.1% from the field, and 37.2% from behind the arc. Three Mavericks are averaging over double digits in scoring with Luka Doncic leading the way at 28.8 points per game. Doncic does everything for the Mavericks because he also leads the way in rebounding at 9.6 per game and in assists at 8.8 per game. Doncic does everything for the Mavericks, but the key is will be how much help he has from Kyrie Irving against his old team and how much help they get from the rest of the lineup.
The defense for the Mavericks has been a tale of two units in the regular season and the postseason. During the season, they were 20th in the league in scoring defense, allowing 115.6 points per game. They were also 20th in field goal percentage at 47.5% and 18th in three-point percentage at 36.8%. In the postseason, their defense has been a massive x-factor. They are allowing 103.9 points per game, 44.5% from the field, and then they are allowing 35.6% from behind the arc. Four Mavericks average at least 0.9 steals per game with Doncic leading the way at 1.6. Daniel Gafford then leads the way in blocks at 1.8 per game. Their defense needs to step up against the Celtics and how much depth they have on offense.
Why The Celtics Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Celtics have been the most well-rounded and best team in the NBA this season. They were second in scoring at 120.6 points per game, eighth in field goal percentage at 48.7%, and then second in three-point percentage at 38.8%. In the postseason, the Celtics are averaging 111.4 points per game, 48% from the field, and 36.8% from behind the arc. Five different Celtics are averaging over double digits with Jayson Tatum leading the way at 26 points per game. Tatum has been the difference maker for the Celtics in the postseason because he also leads the way in rebounding at 10.4 per game and in assists at 5.9 per game.
The Celtics' defense has been great all year and it has not changed at all from the regular season to the postseason. They were fifth in scoring defense at 109.2 points per game, second in field goal percentage defense at 45.3%, and fourth in three-point percentage defense at 35.2%. In the postseason, they are allowing 101.3 points per game, 46.7% from the field, and 33.8% from behind the arc. Four Celtics are averaging over one steal with Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday tied for the lead at 1.3 per game. Porzingis then leads the way in blocks at 1.5 per game. Their defense does not get as much attention, but it is elite and needs to be elite against this Mavericks offense.
Final Mavericks-Celtics Prediction & Pick
The Mavericks have been red-hot, but the rest and time off might hurt them as much as it might hurt the Celtics after sweeping the Pacers. There is the rust factor for the Celtics and that is why this spread is too big. The Celtics should still win at home, but the Mavericks should keep it close thanks to Luka and Kyrie, and cover this spread.
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Final Mavericks-Celtics Prediction & Pick: Mavericks +6.5 (-114)
