It is a battle between the top teams in the NL East as the Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Phillies prediction and pick.
Mets-Phillies Projected Starters
Luis Severino vs. Kolby Allard
Luis Severino (10-6) with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP
Last Start: Severino went 6.2 innings in his last start giving up five hits and two walks. He would give up just one run, but take a no-decision as the Mets lost to the Reds.
2024 Road Splits: Severino is 4-4 in 13 starts on the road with a 4.82 ERA and a .256 opponent batting average.
Kolby Allard (2-0) with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP
Last Start: Allard went five innings, giving up eight hits and two home runs. He would surrender just two runs in a win over the Royals.
2024 Home Splits: In one start at home, Allard gave up three runs in four innings, which was his worst start of the year.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Phillies Odds
New York Mets: -1.5 (+146)
Moneyline: -116
Philadelphia Phillies: +1.5 (-176)
Moneyline: -102
Over: 8.5 (-124)
Under: 8.5 (+102)
How to Watch Mets vs. Phillies
Time: 4:05 PM ET/ 1:05 PM PT
TV: SNY/NBCSP
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Mets are tenth in runs scored in the majors while sitting 13th in batting average, ninth in on-base percentage, and tenth in slugging percentage. Francisco Lindor has led the way this year. He is hitting .268 with a .340 on-base percentage this year. He has 31 home runs, 85 RBIs and 102 runs scored. Lindor has also stolen 27 bases. Meanwhile, Pete Alonso is driving in runs. He is hitting .238 with a .325 on-base percentage. Alonso has 31 home runs, 80 RBIs, and has scored 83 runs this year. Rounding out the best bats this year is Brandon Nimmo. He is hitting .226 with a .336 on-base percentage. He has 18 home runs, 75 RBIs, and 78 runs scored this year. He has also stolen 12 bases.
Mark Vientos and JD Marinex have led the team in RBIs in the last week. Vientos is hitting just .143 with two home runs, four RBIs, and two runs scored in the last week. Martinez is hitting .158 in the last week with four RBIs and a run scored. Francisco Alvarez is hitting .200 in the last week with a home run, three RBIs, and a run scored. In the last week, the Twins are hitting .177 with five home runs and 22 runs scored in six games.
Current Members of the Mets have 22 career at-bats against Kolby Allard. They have hit .227 against him. Lui Torrens is 2-8 with a double, while JD Martinez, Starling Marte, and Jose Iglesias all have hits against Allard.
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies are fifth in majors in runs scored while sitting fourth in batting average, fourth in on-base percentage, and sixth in slugging. Kyle Schwarber has led the way this year. He is hitting .251 this year with a .372 on-base percentage. He has 35 home runs with 95 RBIs. He has also scored 100 times this year. Meanwhile, Bryce Harper is playing well. He is hitting .288 on the year with a .375 on-base percentage. He has 26 home runs, 79 RBIs, and 76 runs scored. Rounding out the top bats on the year is Nick Castellanos. He is hitting .245 this year with 20 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 69 runs scored.
Trea Turner has led the way in the last week. He is hitting .333 in the last week with three home runs, seven RBIs, and six runs scored. Meanwhile, Kyle Schwarber is hot in the last week as well. He is hitting .353 in the last week with a .429 on-base percentage. He has three home runs, six RBIs, and seven runs scored. Finally, Bryce Harper is hitting .4440 in the last week with three RBIs and three runs scored. The Phillies are hitting .290 in the last week with seven home runs and 36 runs scored in the last six games.
Only three current Phillies have at-bats against Luis Severino. Nick Castellanos is 6-15 with an RBI and a walk. Meanwhile, Kyle Schwarber is 2-4 with two doubles, while Kody Clemens is 0-2 against Severino.
Final Mets-Phillies Prediction & Pick
Luis Severino has been solid as of late. In his last five starts, he has given up one or fewer runs in four of them, as the Mets have gone 3-2 in those games. Kolby Allard has made just four starts this year, one at the end of July, and three in August. In his last three starts, he has given up just four runs, all off solo home runs. Furthermore, the Phillies are 2-1 in those three games. The Phillies have been much better as of late at the plate and will take the win in this one.
Final Mets-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Phillies ML (-102)
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