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UFC 310: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Asakura continues on the prelims with a fight in the welterweight division between Michael Chiesa and Max Griffin. Chiesa finally got back into the win column after suffering three losses in a row coming into his last fight meanwhile, Griffin got back on track in a big way in his last fight coming away with the split decision victory. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Chiesa-Griffin prediction and pick.
Michael Chiesa (17-7) hit a rough patch where he lost three in a row from 2021-2023 but then he was finally able to get back into the win column when he submitted Tony Ferguson in the first round back in August. Now, Chiesa will be looking to get back another winning streak when he takes on Max Griffin this weekend at UFC 310.
Max Griffin (20-10) may be 39 years old but he's looked the best he's had in a long time when he outstruck and out-grappled Jeremiah Wells en route to a split-decision victory his last time out. Now, Griffin is looking to get on his first winning streak since 2021 when he steps inside the Octagon to take on Michael Chiesa this weekend at the T-Mobile Arena.
Here are the UFC 310 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 310 Odds: Michael Chiesa-Max Griffin Odds
Michael Chiesa: -112
Max Griffin: -108
Over 2.5 rounds: -200
Under 2.5 rounds: +154
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Why Michael Chiesa Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Tony Ferguson – SUB R1
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 11 (11 SUB)
Michael Chiesa is poised to secure a victory against Max Griffin at UFC 310, leveraging his superior grappling skills and recent momentum. Chiesa's impressive submission of Tony Ferguson in his last outing showcased his elite ground game, which remains a significant threat to any opponent. With 3.35 takedowns per 15 minutes and a 51% takedown accuracy, Chiesa's wrestling prowess far outshines Griffin's defensive capabilities. This grappling advantage, combined with Chiesa's 1.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes compared to Griffin's 0.3, suggests he can dominate the fight if it goes to the ground.
Furthermore, Chiesa's experience against higher-caliber opponents gives him a mental edge in this matchup. His victories over top-tier fighters like Ferguson and Jim Miller demonstrate his ability to perform under pressure. Chiesa's southpaw stance may also pose problems for the orthodox Griffin, creating openings for his takedowns and submissions. With his renewed focus and the momentum from his recent victory, Chiesa is well-positioned to outmaneuver Griffin and secure a decisive win, potentially via submission or a dominant decision.
Why Max Griffin Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jeremiah Wells – DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 11 (9 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Max Griffin is poised to secure a victory against Michael Chiesa at UFC 310, leveraging his superior striking and recent momentum. Griffin's striking accuracy of 49% and output of 3.92 significant strikes per minute significantly outpace Chiesa's 40% accuracy and 1.86 strikes per minute, indicating a clear advantage on the feet. “Pain” has also shown better durability, suggesting he can withstand pressure and maintain his offensive output throughout the fight. Griffin's recent split decision win over Jeremiah Wells demonstrates his ability to perform in close contests, a valuable asset against a veteran like Chiesa.
While Chiesa's grappling credentials are noteworthy, Griffin's 68% takedown defense could prove crucial in keeping the fight standing where he holds the advantage. At 38, Griffin has shown no signs of slowing down and enters this bout with renewed focus and a potential title run in mind. His experience fighting tough opponents and his ability to go the distance consistently (average fight time of 12:58 compared to Chiesa's 9:12) could be decisive factors in a grueling three-round battle. Griffin's more consistent activity and improving skillset give him the edge to secure a hard-fought decision victory and continue his ascent in the welterweight division.
Final Michael Chiesa-Max Griffin Prediction & Pick
These two welterweight veterans will be looking to not only put on a show but also to make a statement showing they still have a lot left in the tank to make a run in the welterweight division. Chiesa certainly didn't look his best coming into his fight against Tony Ferguson but he showed he's still got it when he quickly tapped Ferguson in the first round and that's going to be key here against Griffin who has been surging as of late. As long as Chiesa is able to slow down the movement of Griffin and get into the clinch, he can then utilize his grappling to stifle Griffin's game until he gets the submission or gets the nod on the judge's scorecards.
Final Michael Chiesa-Max Griffin Prediction & Pick: Michael Chiesa (-112), Over 2.5 Rounds (-200)
