It is the third round of the Big Ten tournament as Michigan State faces Purdue. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Michigan State-Purdue prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Michigan State finished the season 18-13 overall while sitting 10-10 in conference play. They entered the tournament as the eighth seed in the Big Ten. That got them a bye into the second round. In that game, they faced Minnesota. It was a back-and-forth game for the entire first half and most of the second. The game was 50-49, in favor of Michigan State. They went on a 9-2 run there to build their lead and would go on to win 77-67.
Purdue finished the regular season at 28-3 while sitting 17-3 in conference play. That gave them a double-bye in the Big Ten tournament and the top seed. They won their last five games in a row and 14 of their last 15 games. In conference play, they have just three losses. First, they lost the in their conference opener to Northwestern, before falling to Nebraska, and Ohio State. All three conference losses were on the road though. They also played Michigan State once this year, winning by six at home.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Michigan State-Purdue Odds
Michigan State: +6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +220
Purdue: -6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -275
Over 143.5 (-110)
Under: 143.5 (-110)
How to Watch Michigan State vs. Purdue
Time: 12:00 PM ET/9:oo AM PT
TV: Big Ten Network
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Michigan State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Michigan State comes in ranked 19th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings this year. They are 56th in adjusted offensive efficiency while also sitting 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Michigan State comes in ranked 151st in the nation in points per game this year, while also sitting 23rd in assists per game this year. Tyson Walker leads the way this year. He comes in with 18.4 points per game this year, while he is shooting 44.8 percent this year. Walker was solid in the game with Minnesota, scoring 15 points. Meanwhile, three other players come in with over ten points per game. That starts with Malik Hall who comes in with 12.7 points per game, while he is shooting 52.7 percent this year. A.J. Hoggard comes in with 10.9 points per game this year while leading the team in assists. Hoggard has 5.0 assists per game this year. He was great in the second round against Minnesota, coming out with 17 points and six assists. Rounding out the top scorers is Jaden Akins, who comes in with 10.5 points per game.
Michigan State sits 178th in rebounds per game this year. Meanwhile, they sit just inside the top 150 in both offensive and defensive rebound percentages. Malik Hall leads the way with 5.7 rebounds per game this year. He also has almost two offensive rebounds per game. Further, Mady Sissoko comes in with 5.2 rebounds per game this year. Carson Cooper rounds out the top rebounders, coming in with 4.7 rebounds per game. Cooper did secure five rebounds against Minnesota, but the other major player on the boards was Jaden Akins, who came away with seven.
Michigan State is 21st in points against per game while sitting 47th in effective field goal percentage. Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard are a major part of the defense. Walker comes in with 1.9 steals per game, while Hoggard comes in with 1.5 steals per game this year. Further, Jaden Akins comes in with 1.2 steals per game.
Why Purdue Will Cover The Spread/Win
Purdue is number three in the nation in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rankings, sitting first in adjusted offensive efficiency and 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They have also faced the fifth hardest schedule according to Ken Pom, coming away with just three losses on the year. Further, Purdue is eighth in the nation in points per game while sitting fourth in assists this year. They are also 12th in the nation in effective field goal percentage this year. Zach Edey has led them.
Edey comes into the game with 24.2 points per game this year. That is good for the most in the nation this year, while his shooting percentage of 61.9 percent is 16th. Edey has 22 or more points in each of his last six games. Meanwhile, Braden Smith comes in with 13.0 points per game this year, while also having 7.2 assists per game on the year. Lance Jones has also been solid this year, he comes into the game with 12.4 points per game.
Purdue has been solid in the rebounding game as well, sitting seventh in the nation in rebounds per game. Further, they are 14th in defensive rounds per game as well, while sitting fifth in offensive rebounding percentage. Edey and Smith lead the way there too. Edey is averaging 11.7 rebounds per game this year, third in the nation. Meanwhile, Braden Smith has 5.9 rebounds per game this year.
On defense, Purdue is 108th in points against per game this year but they are 52nd in opponent effective field goal percentage. Once again, the story on defense is Edey and Smith. Edey comes in with 2.2 blocks per game this year. Meanwhile, Smith has 1.7 steals per game on the season. Further, Lance Jones also has 1.3 steals per game this year.
Final Michigan State-Purdue Prediction & Pick
While Michigan State played a solid game against Minnesota, Purdue is a different animal. Michigan State's major rebounding presences were not able to secure boards against Minnesota. They will have bigger trouble against Purdue. Further, the Purdue defense is better than the Minnesota one as well. This will be a game dominated by Purdue as they move on to the next round.
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Final Michigan State-Purdue Prediction & Pick: Purdue -6.5 (-110)
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