Rick Stockstill enters his 18th season as the head coach for Middle Tennessee football, as they look to win their first Conference USA title. It is now time to continue our college football odds series with a Middle Tennessee football win total prediction and pick.

Last year the Blue Raiders won their second straight bowl game. After winning seven games in the regular season, they finished it off with a win in the Hawaii Bowl over San Diego State. While it is nice a bowl game, Middle Tennessee has not been over .500 in conference play since 2018. That year they lost to UAB in the conference title game. This year, the conference looks vastly different.

UTSA, North Texas, Charlotte, FAU, Rice, and UAB all left to join the American Athletic Conference. Joining Conference USA will be Liberty and New Mexico State, who were both FBS independent schools last year. Also, Sam Houston and Jacksonville State join from the FCS level. Next year, Kennesaw State will be joining as well. While nine teams will be playing in the conference only seven will be playing for the conference title this year, with Sam Houston and Jacksonville State ineligible.

The Blue Raiders sit third in odds to win the conference this year, behind Western Kentucky and Liberty. Someone may be winning Conference USA for the first time in their program's history. In the last 27 years, Western Kentucky is the only active member of the conference to have won the conference. They have done it twice, winning in 2015 and 2016. Two of their four conference losses last year were to teams who have left the conference, but Western Kentucky and Louisana Tech are still on their schedule, the Blue Raiders still have some difficult games ahead of them.

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Middle Tennessee Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 6.5 wins: -142

Under 6.5 wins: +116

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Why Middle Tennessee Can Win 6.5 Games 

The Blue Raiders will be led by their defense this year, but if the offense improves, seven wins should be easy. The running game was dreadful last year, and while Frank Peasant is a solid back, the rest of the rotation is untested and not nearly as good. The passing game was consistent for the Blue Raiders last year and while they are losing wideouts, DJ England-Chisolm will be a big-time deep threat for them. On defense, the weakest part was getting to the quarterback, and Middle Tennessee addressed that by bringing in Brandon Buckner from Oregon.

The Blue Raiders will start 0-1. They start by heading to Alabama, and while the Blue Raiders beat up Miami last year in a huge upset, this will not be the case here. The next week could be that upset though. The Blue Raiders head to Missouri in week two. Stockstill has won six games over power five conference teams as the head coach of Middle Tennessee. If Nicholas Vittiato can hit a few deep balls to England-Chisolm, another upset could be in the works. In all likelihood though, the first win of the season will come over FCS Murray State. They will follow that with a win over Colorado State. The Rams could be one of the worst teams in the nation this year. The offense last year was a disaster and against this quality defensive unit, it will not be a good day for them.

Conference play opens up with 100 Miles of Hate, the rivalry game with Western Kentucky. For the third time this year, the Blue Raiders will be heavy underdogs. Western Kentucky has won this game four times in a row now and looks to tie Middle Tennessee with the second-longest win streak of the series. The Hilltoppers' offense is going to be too much for the Blue Raiders, and they get the win. Next is two conference home games for the Blue Raiders. The defense will win both of them, facing Jacksonville State and Louisana Tech before visiting Liberty.

Against Liberty, if the offense has not figured things out, and the defensive line has not made progress in getting pressure on the QB, it will be another loss, bringing them to 4-4 on the year. Still, the defense will be good enough to get three more wins. New Mexico State and FIU are two of the lowest teams in FPI in the nation, while UTEP will have a good offensive line, but not much else to go with it. Only one player in those three games will have enough to test this solid defense. That is Diego Pavia from New Mexico State. Still, he is turnover prone and this defense will cause many turnovers this year. With the last game against FBS newcomer Sam Houston, an 8-4 season is well within reach.

Why Middle Tennessee Can Not Win 6.5 Games

It would take losing six games for Middle Tennessee to not hit the over. There are four games on the schedule in which the Blue Raiders will be heavy underdogs. The Blue Raiders are already 38-point underdogs to Alabama, and project as double-digit dogs to Missouri as well. They could be double-digit dogs to both Liberty and Western Kentucky as well, but they should be at least getting a touchdown in each of those. With that, there are four quick losses. There would still need to be two more and Colorado State could provide one.

Jay Norvell has been a great coach who can turn around programs. The offense was supposed to be high-flying last year with a bunch of transfers coming in. It just did not live up to expectations. The offensive line is re-tooled, and the running back room was bolstered by transfers. Clay Millen now has a year under his belt, and this offense will improve.

Lousiana Tech could be another stumbling block. The offense started to come together at times last year, and they brought in a lot of new players. Hank Bachmeier will lead the team at quarterback, and with Smoke Harris, Decoldest Crawford, and Cyrus Allen, they could put up a lot of points in a hurry. There is also the possibility that New Mexico State makes a huge jump this year. Jerry Kill was been a winner everywhere he has gone. Diego Pavia took over the bowl game last year, and he could continue to do that again. Jacksonville State could be another troublesome game. Rich Rodriguez has a solid offense that is starting to look like his old West Virginia offenses. If Jacksonville State can keep that going, they may be able to outscore the Blue Raiders.

Final Middle Tennessee Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

With an 0-2 start to the season, the Blue Raiders get their first win of the year against Murray State and follow that up with a win over Colorado State. In conference play, the Blue Raiders lose to Western Kentucky, Liberty, and Louisiana Tech. That places them at 7-5 for the year and the over-hits.

Final Middle Tennessee Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 6.5 (-142)